Will there be 10 or More Nuclear-Armed States by 2035 depending on a Trump win?
Basic
6
Ṁ114Nov 28
46%
Trump loses and 9 nuclear-armed states at most
29%
Trump wins and 10+ nuclear-armed states
18%
Trump wins and 9 nuclear-armed states at most
7%
Trump loses and 10+ nuclear-armed states
Inspired this post about joint markets, here is a variant of this conditional Metaculus question.
Resolves according to Metaculus. See the fine-print there.
Trumps chances: /duck/will-donald-trump-win-the-2024-pres
Currently, nine states possess nuclear weapons: Russia, US, China, France, UK, Pakistan, India, Israel, and North Korea. The most recent entrant into that nuclear club was North Korea, in 2006.
Close date is currently taken from Metaculus but will almost certainly be extended.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Sort by:
@NathanScott I won't be able to resolve it until 2035 and I why not allow the trading to continue? I still want to the close date to trigger to take a look at the Metaculus side.
Related questions
Related questions
Will Trump still be president in June 2030 (given a 2025 presidency)?
18% chance
Will a new nuclear-armed state emerge before 2030?
60% chance
Will Trump win at least thirty states?
35% chance
Will there be more nuclear warheads in the world in 2030 than 2023?
69% chance
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated before Trump is President again?
11% chance
Iran Obtains Nuclear Weapon by 2030? Conditional Trump Elected.
47% chance
Will there be a nuclear exchange between countries before 2025?
3% chance
Will a new nation possess nuclear weapons by 2025?
13% chance
Will there be a Nuclear Explosion by 2030
76% chance
How many states will Trump flip in 2024 [cumulative]?