Will there be 10 or More Nuclear-Armed States by 2035 depending on a Trump win?
Basic
6
Ṁ114Nov 28
46%
Trump loses and 9 nuclear-armed states at most
29%
Trump wins and 10+ nuclear-armed states
18%
Trump wins and 9 nuclear-armed states at most
7%
Trump loses and 10+ nuclear-armed states
Inspired this post about joint markets, here is a variant of this conditional Metaculus question.
Resolves according to Metaculus. See the fine-print there.
Trumps chances: /duck/will-donald-trump-win-the-2024-pres
Currently, nine states possess nuclear weapons: Russia, US, China, France, UK, Pakistan, India, Israel, and North Korea. The most recent entrant into that nuclear club was North Korea, in 2006.
Close date is currently taken from Metaculus but will almost certainly be extended.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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@NathanScott I won't be able to resolve it until 2035 and I why not allow the trading to continue? I still want to the close date to trigger to take a look at the Metaculus side.
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