Will house prices in Germany fall by 6+% in 2024?
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3
80
2025
39%
chance

The empirica Housing Price Index is a set of indices with quarterly data. This question is about the index for the house price for all of Germany all buildings (EZFH Deutschland alle Baujahre). From Q4 2022 to Q4 2023 it changed by -7.2%.

Resolves YES if the change from Q4 2023 to Q4 2024 is <= -6% (e.g. -7.8%).

Resolves NO if the change is >-6% (e.g. -5.4%).

Resolves NA if the index ceases to exist.

Close date might be extended if publication is delayed.

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nice question!