Nov 8
Gretchen Whitmer
Dean Phillips
Joe Manchin
Joe Biden
Michele Obama
Gavin Newsom
Sam Altman
Marianne Williamson
Kamala Harris

All but the nominee resolve NA.

The nominee resolves YES if he/she wins the overall election and NO if someone else wins.

First nomination counts. If Biden gets nominated everybody else is NA. If Biden later withdraws, he resolves NO. Followup does not matter.

Arbitrate with /Tetraspace/if-joe-biden-becomes-the-democratic

There is also /marketwise/will-a-republican-win-the-2024-elec

Close date might be extended if election results take longer.

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bought Ṁ5 Kamala Harris YES

Harris is very much undervalued on Manifold

@Athena I don't know why people keep citing sites like EBO as if their probabilities are the "right" ones and Manifold's probability should move towards theirs. Even if they didn't have all the same problems that plague even the regular probabilities on EBO, these probabilities would probably still be almost completely meaningless, except for the Biden one. I'm pretty sure the sites that EBO is aggregating don't actually have direct conditional markets the way Manifold does. Instead, they're calculating the conditional probability by dividing the probability that a person becomes president by the probability that they get nominated. The problem is that if both of those probabilities are very small, the results you get from this are bound to be extremely inaccurate - when both markets have low probability, even a small change in one could cause a large change in the ratio of their probabilities, and markets have a much larger relative error at low probability to begin with because it's usually not worth betting a candidate down when they're already very low.

So unless I am wrong about what methodology they're using, you really shouldn't trust the conditionals there.

@PlasmaBallin yeah it's greyed cause her odds are less than 10% and she's been near 40% majority of the time

Gretchen Whitmer

Added Gretchen because Fox features her:

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