In the 2019 European Parliament election the largest parties got the following vote shares:
Note that Brexit happened since then and note that this is about votes, not seats. The number of total seats changed since the last election so vote share feels more intuitive.
Current polls are available here, for example.
This resolves YES for every party that gets a higher share of the votes in the 2024 election.
Resolves NO for every party that gets a lower or equal share.
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Current status from politico:
I just realized a big mistake: Groups are not parties. There is now 13.6% of "unaligned" votes. They will decide later and almost certainly join some of the other groups. So it is possible that losers actually become winners.
That said I don't think it will be that dramatic. Germany's AfD is "unaligned" and will join ID or ECR but both of those are already winners. So I think I could resolve this according to the current status above. It matches the votes, after all, and group negotiations are a different thing.
@marktwse But this question is about the popular vote, not share of seats right? And there's a chance that AfD won't join ID because they just got kicked out, so ID will probably resolve NO.
End of year status. Difference from last election as shown in the description (different than poll data!) to Dec 23 poll data.
EPP: +2%
S&D: +0.02%
RE: -1.6%
ID: +1.5%
G/EFA: -3%
ECR: +4%
GUE/NGL: +0.3%
NI: -0.3%
