If Ukraine officially gives Luhansk to Russia, will Ukraine be a member state of the EU on January 1st 2032?
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53%
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The basic idea is that Ukraine makes peace with Russia by officially giving up land. Just taking Luhansk as the most eastern part to have something concrete. Will that increase or decrease their chances to become an EU member compared to the base case?
Resolves NA if Ukraine has not officially given Luhansk to Russia by the close date. Otherwise it resolves like the unconditional market.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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