If Ukraine officially gives Luhansk to Russia, will Ukraine be a member state of the EU on January 1st 2032?
2
16
Ṁ10Ṁ90
2031
53%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The basic idea is that Ukraine makes peace with Russia by officially giving up land. Just taking Luhansk as the most eastern part to have something concrete. Will that increase or decrease their chances to become an EU member compared to the base case?
Resolves NA if Ukraine has not officially given Luhansk to Russia by the close date. Otherwise it resolves like the unconditional market.
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