How many seats in the Lok Sabha will the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) win in the next Indian general election?
resolved Jun 5
Between 272 and 298
271 or fewer
Between 299 and 325
Between 326 and 352
353 or more

From GJOpen and resolves the same:

The next general election for the Lok Sabha, the lower house of India's bicameral parliament, is scheduled for phases in the spring of 2024 (Economist, US News & World Report). Incumbent Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its NDA electoral alliance hoping to extend their majority for another term, though it faces challenges ahead (AP, Times of India). The suspend date will be changed to the day before polls are scheduled to close in the first phase of voting once officially set, expected between April and May 2024 (e.g., 2019 Al Jazeera). In the event of a split within the NDA, the electoral alliance including the BJP will be considered the successor to the NDA.

Effectively a duplicate of this other market but uses the exactly same wording as GJOpen.

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bought Ṁ50 Between 299 and 325 YES

According to the NY Times, NDA is currently leading in 294 seats: India Election Results: Live Updates - The New York Times (

@TimothyJohnson5c16 polymarket had 70% on 370+ seats for way too long...someone earned tens of thousands of dollars betting that down

@SaviorofPlant <300 was selling at 2 cents a day ago, literally 50x

@KungurRail NY times are now indicating 293 seats for NDA.

khatam tata bye bye gaya

So opinion polling has the NDA at 335+ seats for every poll this year. Why are there still seemingly big probabilities for under 326? Should I trust the opinion polls less?

Results are supposed to be publish June 4.