Resolution criteria

This market resolves to whichever party leads German national polling by December 31, 2025. Resolution will be determined by the Dawum.de Bundestagswahl (National election) average on December 31st 2025.

Background

The CDU/CSU won the February 2025 federal election with 28.5% of votes, with the AfD in second place at 20.8%. Die Linke surged to 9% after polling well under 5% until January 2025, while the BSW narrowly failed to enter the Bundestag at 4.98%.

As of mid-November 2025, the AfD leads polling at 25.6%, with the CDU/CSU trailing. Recent polls show AfD at 26%, CDU/CSU at 24-25%, SPD at 14-15%, and Greens at 12%.