On Dec. 31 2024 I will use the OpenAI API to query the highest capability model available at the time following the methodology outlined here and here. I will use the same prompts and sentences. Will at least five languages among those I tested today achieve correct translation for at least 9 out of 10 sentences in both the technical and non-technical categories?

Currently no language passes this bar. The list of languages is as follows: Swahili, Hausa, Igbo, Yoruba, Berber, Oromo, Amharic, Fula, Malagasy, Somali, Zulu, Xhosa, Shona, Wolof, Tigrinya, Kinyarwanda, Afrikaans, Kikuyu, Chewa, Tswana, Luganda, Sotho, Mandinka, Ewe, Lingala, Bambara, Kpelle, Akan, Serer, Krio, Kikongo, Mossi, Nuer, Mende, Dinka, Temne, Sango, Luba-Katanga, Gikuyu, Dholuo, Soninke, Gun, Zarma, Hadiya, Tsonga, Kanuri.

Note that some widely spoken languages such as Arabic and French are not part of this list. The list is meant to include languages spoken mostly in Africa and not elsewhere. Some language names are questionable (e.g. too broad, exonyms, etc.) but I will use these names for consistency.

If the OpenAI API is no longer accessible at the time I will resolve NA.

• Update 2025-26-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Timing

  • The market will be resolved by the end of next week.