If this market resolves YES, will I (post-hoc) come up with an interesting tentative explanation for the violation?

For instance, let’s say that the violation involves only compounds containing elements with a nucleus with an even number of protons and an even number of neutrons. Maybe the violation has to do with the pairing term in the semi empirical mass formula? Mmh.

Note that this excludes trivial explanations based on systematics (e.g. materials displaying violations are ferromagnetic so maybe they were affected by the Earth’s magnetic field). The regularity I notice should be suggestive of a potentially interesting avenue for further research.

This is quite subjective so I won’t bet.

If the linked market resolves NO or N/A (in case I end up not performing the experiments), this one will resolve N/A.

The linked market closes at the end of 2026, this one a year later. This is to give me time to come up with explanations. Also note that me performing the experiments is very likely contingent on getting funding through an ACX grant.