RSA-2048 will be broken in 2023.
9
190Ṁ1745resolved Jan 12
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Background story:
A research team claims to have broken RSA, but only shown factorization up to 48 bits. They claim their approach will work for RSA-2048 with the biggest existing quantum computers. Sec and tech people are sceptical.
Paper:
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2212.12372.pdf
Schneier:
https://www.schneier.com/blog/archives/2023/01/breaking-rsa-with-a-quantum-computer.html
HN:
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=34235350
Resolves to YES if experimental proof is provided within the year.
Resolves to NO if no experimental proof is provided within the year.
It will not resolve early if this specific approach is debunked.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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