Resolution criteria

The Electoral Commission publishes the national election results. The market resolves to whichever party receives the highest vote share in the next UK general election. Vote share is calculated as the total number of votes received divided by the total votes cast across all constituencies. The next United Kingdom general election is scheduled to be held no later than 15 August 2029.

Background

Labour secured 411 seats and a 174-seat majority in the 2024 election, with a vote share of 33.7%, the lowest of any governing party on record. The Conservatives won 121 seats with 23.7% of the vote, while Reform UK won five seats and 14.3% of the vote, the third-highest vote share.

Recent polling shows significant shifts. Reform UK are on 27% of the vote with an eight point lead over any other party, while Labour are on 19% and the Conservatives on 18% (December 2025 YouGov poll). The Green Party won the Gorton and Denton by-election in January 2026, marking the first ever Westminster by-election victory for the Greens.

Considerations

Vote share differs from seat count due to the first-past-the-post electoral system. The combined vote share for Labour and the Conservatives reached a record low in 2024, with smaller parties doing well. Polling can shift substantially between now and the election date, and by-election results may not predict general election outcomes.

This description was generated by AI.