Will we find something showing equal or greater architectural advancement to the Great Pyramid, from before 11,000 BC?
5%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Taken from Scott Alexander's post "Against Ice Age Civilizations" (with slight wording changes so as to fit within the character limit for titles). All of the following predictions are about structures on Earth built by homo sapiens without time travel. He puts this at 0.5%.
There was no time limit given in the post, but I've set the close date to the start of 2040 (else it could never resolve in the negative).
Will resolve to Scott Alexander's judgement if he provides it; otherwise, I will use my judgement and reports in reliable sources to try to answer it (I will not bet in this market).
Sort by:
YES payouts
Related markets
Bolton Bailey
Will we have a formalized proof of the Modularity theorem by 2029-05-01?80%
Nuanced Mormon
Will I think that Joseph Smith's translation of the Book of Abraham's facsimile 1,2 and 3 from Egyptian to English is correct?25%
Conflux
Will experts find the trig-based “proof” of the Pythagorean Theorem by high schoolers legit?72%
Mikhail Doroshenko
Will it be possible to get a correct solution for the quadratic equation from the text-to-image model this year?72%
Ian Philips
Will we find that the dark forest theory of the universe is true?6%
Related markets
Bolton Bailey
Will we have a formalized proof of the Modularity theorem by 2029-05-01?80%
Nuanced Mormon
Will I think that Joseph Smith's translation of the Book of Abraham's facsimile 1,2 and 3 from Egyptian to English is correct?25%
Conflux
Will experts find the trig-based “proof” of the Pythagorean Theorem by high schoolers legit?72%
Mikhail Doroshenko
Will it be possible to get a correct solution for the quadratic equation from the text-to-image model this year?72%
Ian Philips
Will we find that the dark forest theory of the universe is true?6%