Will we find something showing equal or greater architectural advancement to the Great Pyramid, from before 11,000 BC?
Plus
14
Ṁ4942040
5%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Taken from Scott Alexander's post "Against Ice Age Civilizations" (with slight wording changes so as to fit within the character limit for titles). All of the following predictions are about structures on Earth built by homo sapiens without time travel. He puts this at 0.5%.
There was no time limit given in the post, but I've set the close date to the start of 2040 (else it could never resolve in the negative).
Will resolve to Scott Alexander's judgement if he provides it; otherwise, I will use my judgement and reports in reliable sources to try to answer it (I will not bet in this market).
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000and
3.00
1,0003.00Related questions
Related questions
Will we find something showing equal or greater architectural advancement to Gobekli Tepe, from before 11,000 BC?
31% chance
Will we find something showing equal or greater architectural advancement to Buckingham Palace, from before 11,000 BC?
3% chance
By 2040, will we believe the Great Sphinx was built substantially before the pyramids at Giza?
24% chance
Major archaeological discovery rivaling Göbekli Tepe by 2043?
56% chance
By 2040, will a chamber have been found in or under the Great Sphinx that represents a significant discovery?
32% chance
Will researchers find another wooden structure that is over 400,000 years old?
61% chance
Will the Great Pyramid of Giza still be standing in 4,500 years?
62% chance
By 2040, will we believe that the head of the Great Sphinx was substantially recarved after its initial construction?
60% chance
Will remains of a pharaoh be found in Sahure's pyramid?
26% chance
Will any other research team find obelisks before 2030?
83% chance