Will we find something showing equal or greater architectural advancement to the Great Pyramid, from before 11,000 BC? | Manifold

Will we find something showing equal or greater architectural advancement to the Great Pyramid, from before 11,000 BC?

Ancient Markets•History

13

24

Ṁ494

Ṁ310

2040

5%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Taken from Scott Alexander's post "Against Ice Age Civilizations" (with slight wording changes so as to fit within the character limit for titles). All of the following predictions are about structures on Earth built by homo sapiens without time travel. He puts this at 0.5%.

There was no time limit given in the post, but I've set the close date to the start of 2040 (else it could never resolve in the negative).

Will resolve to Scott Alexander's judgement if he provides it; otherwise, I will use my judgement and reports in reliable sources to try to answer it (I will not bet in this market).

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will we have evedence of aliens before 9000?

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Will an AI-conducted archaeological analysis uncover a previously unknown civilization by 2030?

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