Will the Electoral College map of the 2024 presidential election be the same as 2020?
Will the Electoral College map of the 2024 presidential election be the same as 2020?
24
1kṀ9418resolved Nov 8
Resolved
NO1H
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ALL
Resolves to YES if every US state, Washington D.C., and every Congressional district that awards an electoral vote all vote for the same party in the 2024 US presidential election as they did in the 2020 presidential election. The candidates do not need to be the same. Faithless electors don't matter. In the event of disputes about the election results I will follow reliable sources.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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