What will be true about the next UK general election?
UK politics•UK General Election 2024
17
131
Ṁ1K
2025
72%
Gallagher index ≥15.00
62%
The Speaker gets at least two-thirds of the vote in their seat
56%
Nigel Farage stands as a candidate in some seat
51%
Someone with 30%+ of the vote comes third in a seat
50%
More parties get 0.5% of votes nationally than in 2019
41%
At least 5 parties/independents win seats in Northern Ireland
40%
At least one seat has a majority of less than 10 votes
39%
Election is within 2 weeks of the US election (22 Oct-19 Nov inclusive)
36%
At least 3 seats have a majority of less than 100 votes
34%
Someone with <30% of the vote wins a seat
33%
Someone wins a seat with less than 25% of the vote
32%
Turnout % will be higher than 2019
16%
2 or more leaders of parties that won seats resign the next day

Copying the style of several other markets on this sight, this is a free response market about the next UK general election (which has to take place by January 2025). Add your own answers on anything to do with the election (whether serious or funny), and I'll resolve all the ones that come true to YES. I reserve the right to resolve answers to N/A if they duplicate existing answers or are ambiguous.

Get Ṁ200 play money

Related questions

8 Comments
17 Holders
52 Trades
Sort by:
2 or more leaders of parties that won seats resign the next day

resign as leader or resign as MP?

@stationtostation As leader

2 or more leaders of parties that won seats resign the next day

For the SNP, is this Yousaf or Flynn?

@Fion Yousaf

Gallagher index ≥15.00

Also known as the "LOL 🙃 what even is democracy" index

Someone with 30%+ of the vote comes third in a seat

😮 has this ever happened?

@BrunoParga Thurrock in 2015 and Lanark and Hamilton East in 2017!

@lisamarsh that is thrilling!

I'll add it to my list of examples that thrilling is bad in politics 😂 I'm very against FPTP and pro-PR, and PR countries usually are boring, predictable and more stable.

(Then there was a time in a German state election where one vote made the difference for their Lib Dems to reach the threshold and have any representatives at all)

Related in UK politics

See more UK politics questions

Related in UK General Election 2024

See more UK General Election 2024 questions

More related questions