What will be true about the next UK general election?

142

13kṀ110k

resolved Jul 6

Resolved

YES

The Speaker gets at least two-thirds of the vote in their seat

Resolved

YES

Nigel Farage stands as a candidate in some seat

Resolved

YES

A constituency in Sunderland is first to declare a result

Resolved

YES

A party which has never won a seat before will win a seat

Resolved

YES

Labour get a lower vote share than they did in 2017 (40.0%)

Resolved

YES

At least 5 parties/independents win seats in Northern Ireland

Resolved

YES

Someone with <30% of the vote wins a seat

Resolved

YES

More parties get 0.5% of votes nationally than in 2019

Resolved

YES

Gallagher index of disproportionality ≥ 15

Resolved

YES

A candidate will suffer some sort of physical attack during the campaign

Resolved

YES

At least 3 seats have a majority of less than 100 votes

Resolved

Someone with 30%+ of the vote comes third in a seat

Resolved

At least one seat has a majority of less than 10 votes

Resolved

Someone wins a seat with less than 25% of the vote

Resolved

2 or more leaders of parties that won seats resign the next day

Resolved

Turnout % will be higher than 2019

Resolved

Election is within 2 weeks of the US election (22 Oct-19 Nov inclusive)

Resolved

A constituency in Newcastle is first to declare a result

Resolved

A party with >10% of the Great Britain-wide vote wins zero seats

Resolved

FTSE 100 over 8,500 on close of regular hour trading, July 5, 2024

Copying the style of several other markets on this sight, this is a free response market about the next UK general election (which has to take place by January 2025). Add your own answers on anything to do with the election (whether serious or funny), and I'll resolve all the ones that come true to YES. I reserve the right to resolve answers to N/A if they duplicate existing answers or are ambiguous.

UK politics

UK General Election 2024

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