What will be true about the next UK general election?
142
13kṀ110k
resolved Jul 6
Resolved
YES
The Speaker gets at least two-thirds of the vote in their seat
Resolved
YES
Nigel Farage stands as a candidate in some seat
Resolved
YES
A constituency in Sunderland is first to declare a result
Resolved
YES
A party which has never won a seat before will win a seat
Resolved
YES
Labour get a lower vote share than they did in 2017 (40.0%)
Resolved
YES
At least 5 parties/independents win seats in Northern Ireland
Resolved
YES
Someone with <30% of the vote wins a seat
Resolved
YES
More parties get 0.5% of votes nationally than in 2019
Resolved
YES
Gallagher index of disproportionality ≥ 15
Resolved
YES
A candidate will suffer some sort of physical attack during the campaign
Resolved
YES
At least 3 seats have a majority of less than 100 votes
Resolved
NO
Someone with 30%+ of the vote comes third in a seat
Resolved
NO
At least one seat has a majority of less than 10 votes
Resolved
NO
Someone wins a seat with less than 25% of the vote
Resolved
NO
2 or more leaders of parties that won seats resign the next day
Resolved
NO
Turnout % will be higher than 2019
Resolved
NO
Election is within 2 weeks of the US election (22 Oct-19 Nov inclusive)
Resolved
NO
A constituency in Newcastle is first to declare a result
Resolved
NO
A party with >10% of the Great Britain-wide vote wins zero seats
Resolved
NO
FTSE 100 over 8,500 on close of regular hour trading, July 5, 2024

Copying the style of several other markets on this sight, this is a free response market about the next UK general election (which has to take place by January 2025). Add your own answers on anything to do with the election (whether serious or funny), and I'll resolve all the ones that come true to YES. I reserve the right to resolve answers to N/A if they duplicate existing answers or are ambiguous.

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