What will be true about the next UK general election?
142
13kṀ110kresolved Jul 6
Resolved
YESThe Speaker gets at least two-thirds of the vote in their seat
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YESNigel Farage stands as a candidate in some seat
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YESA constituency in Sunderland is first to declare a result
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YESA party which has never won a seat before will win a seat
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YESLabour get a lower vote share than they did in 2017 (40.0%)
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YESAt least 5 parties/independents win seats in Northern Ireland
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YESSomeone with <30% of the vote wins a seat
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YESMore parties get 0.5% of votes nationally than in 2019
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YESGallagher index of disproportionality ≥ 15
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YESA candidate will suffer some sort of physical attack during the campaign
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YESAt least 3 seats have a majority of less than 100 votes
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NOSomeone with 30%+ of the vote comes third in a seat
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NOAt least one seat has a majority of less than 10 votes
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NOSomeone wins a seat with less than 25% of the vote
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NO2 or more leaders of parties that won seats resign the next day
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NOTurnout % will be higher than 2019
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NOElection is within 2 weeks of the US election (22 Oct-19 Nov inclusive)
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NOA constituency in Newcastle is first to declare a result
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NOA party with >10% of the Great Britain-wide vote wins zero seats
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NOFTSE 100 over 8,500 on close of regular hour trading, July 5, 2024
Copying the style of several other markets on this sight, this is a free response market about the next UK general election (which has to take place by January 2025). Add your own answers on anything to do with the election (whether serious or funny), and I'll resolve all the ones that come true to YES. I reserve the right to resolve answers to N/A if they duplicate existing answers or are ambiguous.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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