What will be true about the next UK general election?
Basic
95
42k
2025
90%
A party which has never won a seat before will win a seat
82%
FTSE 100 over 8,500 on close of regular hour trading, July 5, 2024
81%
The Speaker gets at least two-thirds of the vote in their seat
72%
More parties get 0.5% of votes nationally than in 2019
70%
Gallagher index of disproportionality ≥ 15
63%
A constituency in Newcastle is first to declare a result
60%
At least 5 parties/independents win seats in Northern Ireland
57%
Turnout % will be higher than 2019
57%
Someone wins a seat with less than 25% of the vote
52%
FTSE 250 over 21,000 on close of regular hour trading, July 5, 2024
49%
A constituency in Sunderland is first to declare a result
44%
Someone with <30% of the vote wins a seat
38%
The Conservatives get <50% of the vote in every seat
37%
At least 3 seats have a majority of less than 100 votes
36%
At least one seat has a majority of less than 10 votes
31%
Someone with 30%+ of the vote comes third in a seat
21%
2 or more leaders of parties that won seats resign the next day
20%
A party with >10% of the Great Britain-wide vote wins zero seats
19%
Labour get a lower vote share than they did in 2017 (40.0%)
Resolved
YES
Nigel Farage stands as a candidate in some seat

Copying the style of several other markets on this sight, this is a free response market about the next UK general election (which has to take place by January 2025). Add your own answers on anything to do with the election (whether serious or funny), and I'll resolve all the ones that come true to YES. I reserve the right to resolve answers to N/A if they duplicate existing answers or are ambiguous.

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bought Ṁ50 Answer #f1714281beff YES

Farage has been attacked with a milkshake on his first day in Clacton. Not a serious injury, but clearly assault - resolves YES?

@Noit Agreed. He’s not loving it. Resolves YES in my view.

bought Ṁ1,000 Answer #f1714281beff YES

Wondering about ‘party which has never won a seat before will win a seat’ - does Lee Anderson’s defection to Reform count as reform ‘winning’ a seat or does winning imply in an election? @lisamarsh

@Jack_Rose Good question! If Reform win a seat at the next election, I will resolve this YES because Lee Anderson wasn't elected. (If the Workers' Party wins a seat, that doesn't count because they won the Rochdale by-election.)

@lisamarsh Many thanks… I now know one benefit of us being fucked by reform is that I can make some magic internet money off it

@Jack_Rose reform splitting the Tory vote is great, isn't it?

@BrunoParga In seats tories otherwise would have won, I’m more worried about big nige actually winning a seat

@Jack_Rose doesn't the benefit of Labour (or the Lib Dems, or Green) winning seats that would otherwise go to the Tories outweigh the disadvantage of that huge c*nt winning a seat?

@BrunoParga No it does - i think reform is overall paradoxically a good thing. I’m just annoyed that we can’t have the benefits of the Tory voter exodus while also not having the nigeinator having a seat

Nigel Farage stands as a candidate in some seat

Can this one resolve NO? Or does it need to wait for candidate lists to be finalised?

bought Ṁ59 A party with >10% of... NO

@Noit I’ll wait for the final list; I suppose he could always change his mind.

bought Ṁ200 At least 3 seats hav... YES

@lisamarsh I would make a market on this!

Gallagher index of disproportionality ≥ 15

@lisamarsh can you please edit this to say "Gallagher index of disproportionality ≥ 15.00“?

2 or more leaders of parties that won seats resign the next day

resign as leader or resign as MP?

2 or more leaders of parties that won seats resign the next day

For the SNP, is this Yousaf or Flynn?

@Fion Yousaf

Gallagher index of disproportionality ≥ 15

Also known as the "LOL 🙃 what even is democracy" index

Someone with 30%+ of the vote comes third in a seat

😮 has this ever happened?

@BrunoParga Thurrock in 2015 and Lanark and Hamilton East in 2017!

@lisamarsh that is thrilling!

I'll add it to my list of examples that thrilling is bad in politics 😂 I'm very against FPTP and pro-PR, and PR countries usually are boring, predictable and more stable.

(Then there was a time in a German state election where one vote made the difference for their Lib Dems to reach the threshold and have any representatives at all)