If debate doesn't happen, resolves No. Any variation of "GPT" counts, GPT-4, ChatGPT, etc.  Including moderators.

👴🏼 Joe Biden

👴 Trump

🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election

🇺🇸 US Politics

🗳️ Politics

🤖 AI

Resolves YES if GPT-5 is publicly released before Jan 1, 2025; resolves NO otherwise.

Update from March 18: If the next OpenAI flagship model deviates from the GPT-N naming scheme 

 that is going to be released from OpenAI (e.g. they completely changed the trajectory of their naming scheme) then I will count it as "GPT-5" regardless.

However, if the next flagship model is not called GPT-5 but still conforms to the OpenAI GPT-N naming scheme (e.g. GPT-4.5) 

there will eventually be a model called GPT-5

 that will be released (i.e. they are going to continue with the same naming scheme) then I will not count it as "GPT-5".

🖥️ Technology

🤖 OpenAI

GPT-5 Speculation

ChatGPT

Economics

Technology

Business

OpenAI

AI Impacts

GPT-4 speculation

Science

GPT-4

Amazon

IE "make me a 120 minute Star Trek / Star Wars crossover". It should be more or less comparable to a big-budget studio film, although it doesn't have to pass a full Turing Test as long as it's pretty good. The AI doesn't have to be available to the public, as long as it's confirmed to exist.

Scott Alexander's 5 year predictions

AI Media Creation

AGI as determined by Manifold's official market

🌌 Space

AI Safety

🔭 Space exploration

Mars

This question resolves to YES if during at least one of the main (non-VP) 2024 general presidential election debates in the United States, the moderator asks at least two separate questions directly related to artificial intelligence, such as the potential for job losses due to AI automation, or existential risk from AI. This question also resolves to YES if AI is otherwise brought up by a candidate in the context of a question unrelated to AI and ALL candidates talk about AI at least once during the same debate, with at least one of the candidates saying "AI", "artificial intelligence", "robots" or a close synonym at least three separate times, at least five seconds apart, during the same debate. Otherwise, this question resolves to NO.

Asking "at least two separate questions" means that the moderator must pose two semantically distinct and individual queries, each intended to elicit a unique response, specifically about artificial intelligence. In other words, simply repeating the same question doesn't count as two separate questions, even if the question is asked twice, first to one candidate, and then a second time to the other candidate. Moreover, asking two distinct questions without waiting for the answer to the first one counts as two separate questions for the purpose of this question. For example, a clear positive instance would be asking first, "How do you plan to manage the existential risks from AI?" and then later asking, "What are your proposals to mitigate job loss due to automation from AI?" These are two separate questions because they cover different facets of artificial intelligence—existential risk and employment. A clear negative example would be if the moderator simply asked, "How do you plan to manage the existential risks from AI?" to one candidate, and then later said "Same question to you" to the other candidate. Even though the question is asked twice, it's not considered two "separate" questions because it's a repetition of the same query.

When it comes to questions related to automation and job losses, the key factor that determines whether the question is "directly related to artificial intelligence" is whether the moderator mentions AI technologies or AI companies, such as ChatGPT, OpenAI, generative AI, or neural networks; any question will automatically qualify if the moderator says the word "AI" or "artificial intelligence" in the question. General questions about automation or job losses that don't clearly link back to AI won't be considered "directly related to artificial intelligence". For example, the following questions would NOT count as being directly related to artificial intelligence:

If there are no 2024 general presidential election debates, this question resolves to N/A.

US Politics

presidential debate

Contrary to making the resolution of this prediction happen on the exact date of the 'leak', to make it harder, the resolution will be 'YES' when such an event takes place before May 15 and will be 'NO' if nothing comes to fruition before May 15. 

Constraint: The event has to be of a similar standard to how they conducted Dev Day, or in other words, it has to be a public setting where an audience listens to OpenAI release or announce something.

Fairly straight forward question. I'll try to close it earlier if I read the spoilers (if they appear on my timeline). 

🏴‍☠️ One Piece

🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture

One piece theories

Manga

2023 is trending to be the hottest year on record.

🪸 Climate

Global Warming 

🧪 Science

Companion paper here with description of synthesis:

Updating to answer some more common questions. If anything here differs from the 2023-07-27 update, this update should supersede that one. I believe what I have written below maintains the spirit of the market and preserves its predictivity against weird edge cases. 

This question is specifically about LK-99. In the absence of overwhelming expert consensus (see below about resolution caveats), adding materials not in the original synthesis or characterization (replacing Cu with Au, Ag, etc) will not count toward a YES resolution. 

original XRD is OK, up to a point. I think I would be more accepting of this is it’s convincingly shown that the impurities are important to the superconductivity of LK-99. 

Synthesis of LK-99 by other means is totally fine, as long as the material characterization satisfies the criteria above. 

The original intent of this market was to bet on whether LK-99 exhibited the hallmarks of traditional superconductivity, but there have been a few questions on what happens if LK-99 is regions of 1D superconductivity in an insulating matrix, so it doesn’t display the expected R = 0 behavior below Tc. 

At this point, I’m going to hew to the original resolution criteria, in order of importance. 

While superconductor-insulator transitions have been observed, I’m not really familiar with them. Additionally, we don’t have good evidence that it is impossible to observe R=0 in LK-99, since at least 

 measurements show decreasing resistivity as a function of temperature. If we end up in a world where LK-99 convincingly displays a Meissner effect, but doesn’t show the expected resistivity behavior, I will solicit opinions from subject matter experts. After all, it would seem perverse to resolve NO if the majority of superconductivity experts think this is a YES.

I reserve the right to resolve to a probability if the experts I ask are split on the question of superconductivity.

I reserve the right to resolve according to whatever Wikipedia says about this material by Jan 1, 2025, especially if the experts I ask blow me off.

I reserve the right to revisit the resolution criteria if LK-99 or LK-99-like materials end up rewriting what we thought we knew about superconductivity. 

********************************************

Pasting my comment on resolution criteria

We're clearly all here because a) it's fun, and b) we're interested in room temperature superconductivity, not whether some other experimental group gets the same kinda sus data as the original paper. So, when I write 'replicate' in the question I am specifically asking: is the room temperature, ambient pressure superconductivity of the compound LK-99 convincingly demonstrated?

Specifically, replications should convincingly demonstrate:

If synthesizing the compound, there should be evidence that they did make something essentially the same as what is reported in the original paper. 

 not be required for a quantum well superconductor. I think I see how this could be the case. Willing to adjust this criterion after receiving more info from relevant theorists/experimentalists. 

I don't intend to require that replications be published in a peer-reviewed journal. The arXiv is sufficient for me. However, I do intend to wait a few weeks/months to resolve so that any pre-print can be adequately investigated for data manipulation, fraud, etc. In my utopia, labs that claim to have confirmed/disconfirmed this effect would also publish their raw data with their arXiv submissions, but I'm not holding my breath. 

Since high Tc superconductivity is not my specific field of expertise, I'm willing to defer to a consensus of subject matter experts on whether a pre-print is convincing or not, and I am willing to contact some beyond the usual twitter personalities.

superconductivity

LK-99

'4':2 'capo':3 'downhil':5 'finish':6 'mele':4 'stage':1

Stage 5 (Cat 4 climb 20km from flat finish)

'20km':6 '4':4 '5':2 'cat':3 'climb':5 'finish':9 'flat':8 'stage':1

'8':2 'di':4 'prati':3 'stage':1 'tivo':5

'9':2 'climb':5 'sever':3 'small':4 'stage':1

'10':2 'bocca':3 'della':4 'selva':5 'stage':1

'12':2 'climb':5 'sever':3 'short':4 'stage':1

Resolves to the first stage where the pink jersey is awarded to someone OTHER than Pogacar on the podium after the stage. If there is no podium, based on the Giro website.

If the race is canceled early, resolves to Never. If he holds the jersey every stage, resolves Never. 

Giro d'Italia

🚲  Cycling

🚲  Peloton Discord

🏟️ Sports

'decid':2 'game':1 'penalti':4 'shootout':5

Margin of victory is 2+ goals (FT or AET)

'2':5 'aet':9 'ft':7 'goal':6 'margin':1 'victori':3

Any manager or coaching staff member is shown a yellow/red card

'card':11 'coach':4 'manag':2 'member':6 'shown':8 'staff':5 'yellow/red':10

Haaland, De Bruyne, or Bernardo Silva score for City

'bernardo':5 'bruyn':3 'citi':9 'de':2 'haaland':1 'score':7 'silva':6

Fernandes, Garnacho, or Maguire score for United

'fernand':1 'garnacho':2 'maguir':4 'score':5 'unit':7

Second half stoppage time is announced as 8+ minutes (in regular time)

'8':8 'announc':6 'half':2 'minut':9 'regular':11 'second':1 'stoppag':3 'time':4,12

This year’s FA Cup final is another Manchester derby.  Will we get a wild send off to this year’s Premier League season?

Own goals scored by named players would not qualify for YES resolutions.  The players must score for their own teams.

The exact amount of second half stoppage time played is irrelevant, just the amount of time shown on the fourth official’s board. 8 or higher will resolve as YES.

As these resolutions are objective, I may trade in this market.

Manchester United

Premier League

⚽ 🏈 Football

UEFA

Premier League 2023-2024

#Politics #USPolitics #Elections #JoeBiden

2024 US Presidential Election

The Life of Biden

Global Macro

Politics

Gerontocracy

🔦Subsidy Spotlight

2023 Market of the Year Candidates

This market will resolve YES if Trump is sent to prison, jail, lockup, or house arrest, for violating any gag order from any court in 2024. If not, resolves NO on January 1st, 2025.

Being sent to prison for any other reason won't resolve YES. Also, this question is only about whether Trump is sent to prison, not whether he actually goes, for example, if he appeals it.

Trump indictment(s)

Trial of the Century

'2021':7 '2023':8 'list':5 'space':1 'x':2

'amperex':2 'contemporari':1 'technolog':3

'2021':4 '2022':5 '2023':7 'disney':1 'list':3

TIME Magazine is making their list of the 

. Applications close March 8th, and the list is expected to come out in May.

They've done this for only three years, and you can find the previous lists here:

You can submit companies you think will be on the list, and you'll get trader bonuses if other users trade on your answers. If a company is on the list it resolves Yes, if it is not it resolves No.

Can include mid-ceremony disturbance that cancels the rest of the event. Must be permanent cancellation and not just rescheduling/postponement.

🇮🇱🇵🇸 Israel-Hamas Conflict

🇮🇱 Israel

🇵🇸 Palestine

Yes means that the US reschedules cannabis (marijuana) to be other than Schedule 1, or deschedules it entirely.

No means that cannabis remains Schedule 1.

The bill must have passed and been signed by the president if the action is legislative.

Cannabis

Drugs

Drug Policy

🐘 Republican Party

2024 Matt Yglesias Predictions

'r':4 'r-sc':3 'sc':5 'scott':2 'senat':6 'tim':1

'elis':1 'ny':5 'r':4 'r-ni':3 'repres':6 'stefanik':2

'governor':5 'kristi':1 'noem':2 'r':3 'sd':4

'd':3 'governor':5 'gretchen':1 'michigan':4 'whitmer':2

Resolves to the person who wins the majority of votes for US President in the 

, or selected by Congress following the contingency procedure in the 

Resolves provisionally if both the Associated Press projects a winner and the losing major party candidate concedes.

How "Other" works: I will add more top candidates to this question. If you bet on "Other" that is the same as betting on all candidates that are added after your bet.

Resolves as Yes if an official IDF spokesperson declares the IDF has entered the city of Rafah en masse in Gaza.

Surgical raids of limited scope will not count, only a large scale clearing operation. If there is no announcement by the IDF but there is overwhelming video evidence, that will be sufficient for Yes. If resolution is very murky as the month ends, up to a week will be taken after market close to wait for clearer evidence. If Rafah is invaded in April, this market will resolve N/A.

Gaza

Arab-Israeli Conflict

⚔️ Wars

For this market to resolve Yes, there has to be a permanent population on a part of atoll land belonging to the island nation now. 

Artificial islands and other potential solutions don't count.

Climate change

Price of Bitcoin will be considered in Pacific Timezone.

Evaluates YES if the individual known as Cheese Ball Man 

https://www.instagram.com/cheeseballman427/

 appears in another public stunt before the market closes.

33K Followers, 4 Following, 7 Posts - See Instagram photos and videos from @cheeseballman427

 (@cheeseballman427) • Instagram photos and videos

One Piece Stocks

10 songs will be chosen. Resolves based on official results. I may bet on this market.