If debate doesn't happen, resolves No. Any variation of "GPT" counts, GPT-4, ChatGPT, etc.  Including moderators.

👴🏼 Joe Biden

👴 Trump

🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election

🇺🇸 US Politics

🗳️ Politics

🤖 AI

Resolves YES if GPT-5 is publicly released before Jan 1, 2025; resolves NO otherwise.

Update from March 18: If the next OpenAI flagship model deviates from the GPT-N naming scheme 

 that is going to be released from OpenAI (e.g. they completely changed the trajectory of their naming scheme) then I will count it as "GPT-5" regardless.

However, if the next flagship model is not called GPT-5 but still conforms to the OpenAI GPT-N naming scheme (e.g. GPT-4.5) 

there will eventually be a model called GPT-5

 that will be released (i.e. they are going to continue with the same naming scheme) then I will not count it as "GPT-5".

🖥️ Technology

🤖 OpenAI

GPT-5 Speculation

ChatGPT

IE "make me a 120 minute Star Trek / Star Wars crossover". It should be more or less comparable to a big-budget studio film, although it doesn't have to pass a full Turing Test as long as it's pretty good. The AI doesn't have to be available to the public, as long as it's confirmed to exist.

Scott Alexander's 5 year predictions

Technology

AI Media Creation

This question resolves to YES if during at least one of the main (non-VP) 2024 general presidential election debates in the United States, the moderator asks at least two separate questions directly related to artificial intelligence, such as the potential for job losses due to AI automation, or existential risk from AI. This question also resolves to YES if AI is otherwise brought up by a candidate in the context of a question unrelated to AI and ALL candidates talk about AI at least once during the same debate, with at least one of the candidates saying "AI", "artificial intelligence", "robots" or a close synonym at least three separate times, at least five seconds apart, during the same debate. Otherwise, this question resolves to NO.

Asking "at least two separate questions" means that the moderator must pose two semantically distinct and individual queries, each intended to elicit a unique response, specifically about artificial intelligence. In other words, simply repeating the same question doesn't count as two separate questions, even if the question is asked twice, first to one candidate, and then a second time to the other candidate. Moreover, asking two distinct questions without waiting for the answer to the first one counts as two separate questions for the purpose of this question. For example, a clear positive instance would be asking first, "How do you plan to manage the existential risks from AI?" and then later asking, "What are your proposals to mitigate job loss due to automation from AI?" These are two separate questions because they cover different facets of artificial intelligence—existential risk and employment. A clear negative example would be if the moderator simply asked, "How do you plan to manage the existential risks from AI?" to one candidate, and then later said "Same question to you" to the other candidate. Even though the question is asked twice, it's not considered two "separate" questions because it's a repetition of the same query.

When it comes to questions related to automation and job losses, the key factor that determines whether the question is "directly related to artificial intelligence" is whether the moderator mentions AI technologies or AI companies, such as ChatGPT, OpenAI, generative AI, or neural networks; any question will automatically qualify if the moderator says the word "AI" or "artificial intelligence" in the question. General questions about automation or job losses that don't clearly link back to AI won't be considered "directly related to artificial intelligence". For example, the following questions would NOT count as being directly related to artificial intelligence:

If there are no 2024 general presidential election debates, this question resolves to N/A.

US Politics

presidential debate

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drake%E2%80%93Kendrick_Lamar_feud

🎷 Music

Drake/Kendrick Beef

🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture

🧑‍🎤 Celebrities

Hip-Hop/Rap

Resolves Yes if Barack Obama makes 12 or more Twitter(X) posts in May 2024 

Only Posts counts. Repost and replies do not count. 

Note: A quoted post are still counted as a post, as long as it doesn't have a repost header.

 Barack Obama

✖️ Twitter

2023 is trending to be the hottest year on record.

🪸 Climate

Global Warming 

🧪 Science

Companion paper here with description of synthesis:

Updating to answer some more common questions. If anything here differs from the 2023-07-27 update, this update should supersede that one. I believe what I have written below maintains the spirit of the market and preserves its predictivity against weird edge cases. 

This question is specifically about LK-99. In the absence of overwhelming expert consensus (see below about resolution caveats), adding materials not in the original synthesis or characterization (replacing Cu with Au, Ag, etc) will not count toward a YES resolution. 

original XRD is OK, up to a point. I think I would be more accepting of this is it’s convincingly shown that the impurities are important to the superconductivity of LK-99. 

Synthesis of LK-99 by other means is totally fine, as long as the material characterization satisfies the criteria above. 

The original intent of this market was to bet on whether LK-99 exhibited the hallmarks of traditional superconductivity, but there have been a few questions on what happens if LK-99 is regions of 1D superconductivity in an insulating matrix, so it doesn’t display the expected R = 0 behavior below Tc. 

At this point, I’m going to hew to the original resolution criteria, in order of importance. 

While superconductor-insulator transitions have been observed, I’m not really familiar with them. Additionally, we don’t have good evidence that it is impossible to observe R=0 in LK-99, since at least 

 measurements show decreasing resistivity as a function of temperature. If we end up in a world where LK-99 convincingly displays a Meissner effect, but doesn’t show the expected resistivity behavior, I will solicit opinions from subject matter experts. After all, it would seem perverse to resolve NO if the majority of superconductivity experts think this is a YES.

I reserve the right to resolve to a probability if the experts I ask are split on the question of superconductivity.

I reserve the right to resolve according to whatever Wikipedia says about this material by Jan 1, 2025, especially if the experts I ask blow me off.

I reserve the right to revisit the resolution criteria if LK-99 or LK-99-like materials end up rewriting what we thought we knew about superconductivity. 

********************************************

Pasting my comment on resolution criteria

We're clearly all here because a) it's fun, and b) we're interested in room temperature superconductivity, not whether some other experimental group gets the same kinda sus data as the original paper. So, when I write 'replicate' in the question I am specifically asking: is the room temperature, ambient pressure superconductivity of the compound LK-99 convincingly demonstrated?

Specifically, replications should convincingly demonstrate:

If synthesizing the compound, there should be evidence that they did make something essentially the same as what is reported in the original paper. 

 not be required for a quantum well superconductor. I think I see how this could be the case. Willing to adjust this criterion after receiving more info from relevant theorists/experimentalists. 

I don't intend to require that replications be published in a peer-reviewed journal. The arXiv is sufficient for me. However, I do intend to wait a few weeks/months to resolve so that any pre-print can be adequately investigated for data manipulation, fraud, etc. In my utopia, labs that claim to have confirmed/disconfirmed this effect would also publish their raw data with their arXiv submissions, but I'm not holding my breath. 

Since high Tc superconductivity is not my specific field of expertise, I'm willing to defer to a consensus of subject matter experts on whether a pre-print is convincing or not, and I am willing to contact some beyond the usual twitter personalities.

Science

superconductivity

LK-99

Resolves 50% if two are chosen at same time

🎨 Culture

Athletics

🏀 Basketball

🏟️ Sports

⚽ 🏈 Football

UEFA Champions League

⚽ Soccer

📈 Stocks

This refers to the global sale of Apple Vision Pro units.

🍎 Apple

👓 Apple Vision Pro

Virtual Reality

#Politics #USPolitics #Elections #JoeBiden

2024 US Presidential Election

The Life of Biden

Global Macro

Politics

Gerontocracy

🔦Subsidy Spotlight

2023 Market of the Year Candidates

College Protesters Make Divestment From Israel a Rallying Cry

Will any US college announce plans to divest from Israel, in response to protests by June (assumed to be the end of the school year)?

Announcements from university presidents or boards here will count, even if the divestment does not begin by June (i.e. “we will begin divesting from Israel-supporting stocks in 2024” would Resolve YES).

🇮🇱🇵🇸 Israel-Hamas Conflict

Colleges & Universities

🇮🇱 Israel

Arab-Israeli Conflict

🐘 Republican Party

2024 Matt Yglesias Predictions

Yes means that the US reschedules cannabis (marijuana) to be other than Schedule 1, or deschedules it entirely.

No means that cannabis remains Schedule 1.

The bill must have passed and been signed by the president if the action is legislative.

Cannabis

Drugs

Drug Policy

The resolution is to the first nominee formally selected by the Democratic Party (which happens at the Democratic National Convention). If the nominee is later replaced (for example, due to dropping out of the election, death, etc) that does not change the resolution.

If a candidate becomes presumptive nominee after securing a majority of pledged delegates, that is not sufficient for resolution, until formally selected as nominee.

'2021':7 '2023':8 'list':5 'space':1 'x':2

'amperex':2 'contemporari':1 'technolog':3

TIME Magazine is making their list of the 

. Applications close March 8th, and the list is expected to come out in May.

They've done this for only three years, and you can find the previous lists here:

You can submit companies you think will be on the list, and you'll get trader bonuses if other users trade on your answers. If a company is on the list it resolves Yes, if it is not it resolves No.

'r':4 'r-sc':3 'sc':5 'scott':2 'senat':6 'tim':1

'elis':1 'ny':5 'r':4 'r-ni':3 'repres':6 'stefanik':2

'governor':5 'kristi':1 'noem':2 'r':3 'sd':4

'd':3 'governor':5 'gretchen':1 'michigan':4 'whitmer':2

Resolves to the person who wins the majority of votes for US President in the 

, or selected by Congress following the contingency procedure in the 

Resolves provisionally if both the Associated Press projects a winner and the losing major party candidate concedes.

How "Other" works: I will add more top candidates to this question. If you bet on "Other" that is the same as betting on all candidates that are added after your bet.

12:00 - Osasuna vs Real Betis - La Liga 🇪🇸

'00':2 '12':1 'beti':6 'la':7 'liga':8 'osasuna':3 'real':5 'vs':4

13:00 - Brighton vs Aston Villa - Premier League 🇬🇧

'00':2 '13':1 'aston':5 'brighton':3 'leagu':8 'premier':7 'villa':6 'vs':4

13:00 - Chelsea vs West Ham - Premier League 🇬🇧

'00':2 '13':1 'chelsea':3 'ham':6 'leagu':8 'premier':7 'vs':4 'west':5

13:30 - Union Berlin vs Vfl Bochum - Bundesliga 🇩🇪

'13':1 '30':2 'berlin':4 'bochum':7 'bundesliga':8 'union':3 'vfl':6 'vs':5

00:00 - Corinthians vs Fortaleza EC - Brasileirão 🇧🇷

'00':1,2 'brasileirão':7 'corinthian':3 'ec':6 'fortaleza':5 'vs':4

14:15 - Celta Vigo vs Villarreal - La Liga 🇪🇸

'14':1 '15':2 'celta':3 'la':7 'liga':8 'vigo':4 'villarr':6 'vs':5

14:30 - Farense vs Estoril - Primeira Liga 🇵🇹

'14':1 '30':2 'estoril':5 'farens':3 'liga':7 'primeira':6 'vs':4

15:30 - Liverpool vs Tottenham - Premier League 🇬🇧

'15':1 '30':2 'leagu':7 'liverpool':3 'premier':6 'tottenham':5 'vs':4

15:30 - Eintracht Frankfurt vs Bayer Leverkusen - Bundesliga 🇩🇪

'15':1 '30':2 'bayer':6 'bundesliga':8 'eintracht':3 'frankfurt':4 'leverkusen':7 'vs':5

16:30 - Valencia vs Alaves - La Liga 🇪🇸

'16':1 '30':2 'alav':5 'la':6 'liga':7 'valencia':3 'vs':4

17:00 - Arouca vs Estrela - Primeira Liga 🇵🇹

'00':2 '17':1 'arouca':3 'estrela':5 'liga':7 'primeira':6 'vs':4

17:00 - SC Braga vs Casa Pia - Primeira Liga 🇵🇹

'00':2 '17':1 'braga':4 'casa':6 'liga':9 'pia':7 'primeira':8 'sc':3 'vs':5

17:30 - FC Heidenheim vs FSV Mainz 05 - Bundesliga 🇩🇪

'05':8 '17':1 '30':2 'bundesliga':9 'fc':3 'fsv':6 'heidenheim':4 'mainz':7 'vs':5

19:00 - Rayo Vallecano vs Almeria - La Liga 🇪🇸

'00':2 '19':1 'almeria':6 'la':7 'liga':8 'rayo':3 'vallecano':4 'vs':5

19:00 - Sevilla vs Granada CF - La Liga 🇪🇸

'00':2 '19':1 'cf':6 'granada':5 'la':7 'liga':8 'sevilla':3 'vs':4

19:00 - Vitoria vs Sao Paulo - Brasileirão 🇧🇷

'00':2 '19':1 'brasileirão':7 'paulo':6 'sao':5 'vitoria':3 'vs':4

19:00 - Atletico Paranaense vs Vasco DA Gama - Brasileirão 🇧🇷

'00':2 '19':1 'atletico':3 'brasileirão':9 'da':7 'gama':8 'paranaens':4 'vasco':6 'vs':5

19:30 - Famalicao vs Benfica - Primeira Liga 🇵🇹

'19':1 '30':2 'benfica':5 'famalicao':3 'liga':7 'primeira':6 'vs':4

⚽ Will home team win? (May 5, 2024 matches)

This market includes the main football matches taking place on Sunday, May 5, 2024. The matches featured in this market are selected based on their popularity and betting activity on major sports betting platforms. 🏟️

Some matches, like those from Campeonato Rondoniense, are included based on my personal preferences. 😄⚽

I will try to resolve each answer as soon as possible, usually with a comment providing the results of the match. 🏃‍♂️💨

Please note that all times mentioned are in UTC, and the home teams are always listed on the left side of the fixture. For example, in a match between Real Madrid and Manchester City, Real Madrid would be considered the home team. 🕰️🏠

Resolves YES if Yuki Tsunoda outscores Daniel Ricciardo over the whole weekend, including sprint races. Resolves NO if they score the same non-zero number of points. If neither driver scores, resolves based on classification order in the main race.

🏎️ Formula 1

Earthquake

Nature

Disasters

Natural Disasters

Cinco de Mayo

Price of Bitcoin will be considered in Pacific Timezone.

Resolves as YES if on June 20th 2024, both DLCs "Winds of Change" (eu4) and "The Machine Age" (stellaris) have mostly positive reviews or better on Steam.

https://store.steampowered.com/app/2840100/Stellaris_The_Machine_Age/?curator_clanid=9703436

https://store.steampowered.com/app/2854750/Expansion__Europa_Universalis_IV_Winds_of_Change/