The model will suggest a bet on a market on Manifold that ultimately ends up being profitable

'bet':6 'end':14 'manifold':11 'market':9 'model':2 'profit':17 'suggest':4 'ultim':13

The model will do better on a coding task of my choice than Claude 3 Opus

'3':15 'better':5 'choic':12 'claud':14 'code':8 'model':2 'opus':16 'task':9

The model will crack a joke that I actually find funny

'actual':9 'crack':4 'find':10 'funni':11 'joke':6 'model':2

The model will correctly identify that it is gpt2-chatbot when told about the release

'chatbot':11 'correct':4 'gpt2':10 'gpt2-chatbot':9 'identifi':5 'model':2 'releas':16 'told':13

Two new models called "im-a-good-gpt-chatbot" and "im-also-a-good-gpt-chatbot" appeared on Chatbot Arena today: 

If you create an answer in this market, I will attempt to get the model to do whatever it says. The model gets one single prompt (with potentially many messages therein) and I will try to put in somewhere around 5 tries to get the model to attempt the task before resolving no. 

🤖 AI

🖥️ Technology

🤖 OpenAI

GPT-5 Speculation

If debate doesn't happen, resolves No. Any variation of "GPT" counts, GPT-4, ChatGPT, etc.  Including moderators.

👴🏼 Joe Biden

👴 Trump

🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election

🇺🇸 US Politics

🗳️ Politics

Resolves YES if GPT-5 is publicly released before Jan 1, 2025; resolves NO otherwise.

Update from March 18: If the next OpenAI flagship model deviates from the GPT-N naming scheme 

 that is going to be released from OpenAI (e.g. they completely changed the trajectory of their naming scheme) then I will count it as "GPT-5" regardless.

However, if the next flagship model is not called GPT-5 but still conforms to the OpenAI GPT-N naming scheme (e.g. GPT-4.5) 

there will eventually be a model called GPT-5

 that will be released (i.e. they are going to continue with the same naming scheme) then I will not count it as "GPT-5".

ChatGPT

IE "make me a 120 minute Star Trek / Star Wars crossover". It should be more or less comparable to a big-budget studio film, although it doesn't have to pass a full Turing Test as long as it's pretty good. The AI doesn't have to be available to the public, as long as it's confirmed to exist.

Scott Alexander's 5 year predictions

Technology

AI Media Creation

https://x.com/apples_jimmy/status/1787331421964804324

'fruit':5 'inspir':2 'outfit':1 'veget':7

'flag':2 'guest':7 'palestinian':1 'visibl':4

Someone wearing a Salvador Dalí-inspired timepiece or outfit

'dalí':6 'dalí-inspir':5 'inspir':7 'outfit':10 'salvador':4 'someon':1 'timepiec':8 'wear':2

'announc':3 'bieber':2 'hailey':1 'pregnanc':4

'7':7 'dwarf':8 'inspir':2 'one':4 'outfit':1

'attend':7 'ceo':2 'chew':4 'shou':3 'tiktok':1

'carpet':7 'red':6 'seen':2 'someon':1 'vape':3

'announc':3 'jenner':2 'kyli':1 'pregnanc':4

Bianca Censori titties hanging out (90%+ exposure)

'90':6 'bianca':1 'censori':2 'exposur':7 'hang':4 'titti':3

Rihanna has a predominantly White, Yellow, Blue or Green top half

'blue':7 'green':9 'half':11 'predomin':4 'rihanna':1 'top':10 'white':5 'yellow':6

Jennifer Lopez has a predominantly White, Brown, Blue or Black top half

'black':10 'blue':8 'brown':7 'half':12 'jennif':1 'lopez':2 'predomin':5 'top':11 'white':6

Affectionately referred to as “fashion’s biggest night out,” the 

 is a fundraising benefit for the Metropolitan Museum of Art in New York City that is held every year on the first Monday in May. The event welcomes stars, young creatives, and industry paragons.

Questions resolve based on the live red carpet broadcast as well as articles, tweets, and other sources where necessary. Feel free to add your own questions, but keep them reasonable / be prepared to provide proof for resolution or they will be N/A'ed and fees will not be returned.

Entertainment

🧑‍🎤 Celebrities

Fashion

🎨 Culture

🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture

Fairly straight forward question. I'll try to close it earlier if I read the spoilers (if they appear on my timeline). 

🏴‍☠️ One Piece

One piece theories

Manga

2023 is trending to be the hottest year on record.

🪸 Climate

Global Warming 

🧪 Science

Companion paper here with description of synthesis:

Updating to answer some more common questions. If anything here differs from the 2023-07-27 update, this update should supersede that one. I believe what I have written below maintains the spirit of the market and preserves its predictivity against weird edge cases. 

This question is specifically about LK-99. In the absence of overwhelming expert consensus (see below about resolution caveats), adding materials not in the original synthesis or characterization (replacing Cu with Au, Ag, etc) will not count toward a YES resolution. 

original XRD is OK, up to a point. I think I would be more accepting of this is it’s convincingly shown that the impurities are important to the superconductivity of LK-99. 

Synthesis of LK-99 by other means is totally fine, as long as the material characterization satisfies the criteria above. 

The original intent of this market was to bet on whether LK-99 exhibited the hallmarks of traditional superconductivity, but there have been a few questions on what happens if LK-99 is regions of 1D superconductivity in an insulating matrix, so it doesn’t display the expected R = 0 behavior below Tc. 

At this point, I’m going to hew to the original resolution criteria, in order of importance. 

While superconductor-insulator transitions have been observed, I’m not really familiar with them. Additionally, we don’t have good evidence that it is impossible to observe R=0 in LK-99, since at least 

 measurements show decreasing resistivity as a function of temperature. If we end up in a world where LK-99 convincingly displays a Meissner effect, but doesn’t show the expected resistivity behavior, I will solicit opinions from subject matter experts. After all, it would seem perverse to resolve NO if the majority of superconductivity experts think this is a YES.

I reserve the right to resolve to a probability if the experts I ask are split on the question of superconductivity.

I reserve the right to resolve according to whatever Wikipedia says about this material by Jan 1, 2025, especially if the experts I ask blow me off.

I reserve the right to revisit the resolution criteria if LK-99 or LK-99-like materials end up rewriting what we thought we knew about superconductivity. 

********************************************

Pasting my comment on resolution criteria

We're clearly all here because a) it's fun, and b) we're interested in room temperature superconductivity, not whether some other experimental group gets the same kinda sus data as the original paper. So, when I write 'replicate' in the question I am specifically asking: is the room temperature, ambient pressure superconductivity of the compound LK-99 convincingly demonstrated?

Specifically, replications should convincingly demonstrate:

If synthesizing the compound, there should be evidence that they did make something essentially the same as what is reported in the original paper. 

 not be required for a quantum well superconductor. I think I see how this could be the case. Willing to adjust this criterion after receiving more info from relevant theorists/experimentalists. 

I don't intend to require that replications be published in a peer-reviewed journal. The arXiv is sufficient for me. However, I do intend to wait a few weeks/months to resolve so that any pre-print can be adequately investigated for data manipulation, fraud, etc. In my utopia, labs that claim to have confirmed/disconfirmed this effect would also publish their raw data with their arXiv submissions, but I'm not holding my breath. 

Since high Tc superconductivity is not my specific field of expertise, I'm willing to defer to a consensus of subject matter experts on whether a pre-print is convincing or not, and I am willing to contact some beyond the usual twitter personalities.

Science

superconductivity

LK-99

They currently lead 1-0 and looking dominant. Are Denver in trouble? Resolves NO if Nuggets win a game in the series

2023-2024 NBA Season

🏀 Basketball

🏟️ Sports

NBA Playoffs

Will be resolved after the market is closed according to

https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/msft/historical

Tech Stocks

Daily Markets

Microsoft

📈 Stocks

🪙 Crypto

🅱️ Bitcoin

Bitcoin maxi

#Politics #USPolitics #Elections #JoeBiden

2024 US Presidential Election

The Life of Biden

Global Macro

Politics

US Politics

Gerontocracy

🔦Subsidy Spotlight

2023 Market of the Year Candidates

This market will resolve YES if Trump is sentenced to prison, jail, lockup, or house arrest, for violating any gag order from any court in 2024. If not, resolves NO on January 1st, 2025.

Being sentenced to prison for any other reason won't resolve YES. Also, this question is only about whether Trump is sentenced to prison, not whether he actually goes, for example, if he appeals it.

Trump indictment(s)

Trial of the Century

Yes means that the US reschedules cannabis (marijuana) to be other than Schedule 1, or deschedules it entirely.

No means that cannabis remains Schedule 1.

The bill must have passed and been signed by the president if the action is legislative.

Cannabis

Drugs

Drug Policy

'2021':7 '2023':8 'list':5 'space':1 'x':2

'amperex':2 'contemporari':1 'technolog':3

'2021':4 '2022':5 '2023':7 'disney':1 'list':3

TIME Magazine is making their list of the 

. Applications close March 8th, and the list is expected to come out in May.

They've done this for only three years, and you can find the previous lists here:

You can submit companies you think will be on the list, and you'll get trader bonuses if other users trade on your answers. If a company is on the list it resolves Yes, if it is not it resolves No.

🐘 Republican Party

2024 Matt Yglesias Predictions

Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025?

This question will resolve Yes if, before January 1, 2025, marijuana is officially classified as something other than a schedule I drug in the US. If it is later reclassified as a schedule I drug, the question still resolves Yes.

Fine print and additional background information can be found 

Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.

Metaculus

ACX 2024 Prediction Contest

Scheduling

'r':4 'r-sc':3 'sc':5 'scott':2 'senat':6 'tim':1

'elis':1 'ny':5 'r':4 'r-ni':3 'repres':6 'stefanik':2

'governor':5 'kristi':1 'noem':2 'r':3 'sd':4

'd':3 'governor':5 'gretchen':1 'michigan':4 'whitmer':2

Resolves to the person who wins the majority of votes for US President in the 

, or selected by Congress following the contingency procedure in the 

Resolves provisionally if both the Associated Press projects a winner and the losing major party candidate concedes.

How "Other" works: I will add more top candidates to this question. If you bet on "Other" that is the same as betting on all candidates that are added after your bet.

Price of Bitcoin will be considered in Pacific Timezone.

Resolves as Yes if an official IDF spokesperson declares the IDF has entered the city of Rafah en masse in Gaza.

Surgical raids of limited scope will not count, only a large scale clearing operation. If there is no announcement by the IDF but there is overwhelming video evidence, that will be sufficient for Yes. If resolution is very murky as the month ends, up to a week will be taken after market close to wait for clearer evidence. If Rafah is invaded in April, this market will resolve N/A.

Gaza

🇵🇸 Palestine

🇮🇱 Israel

Arab-Israeli Conflict

🇮🇱🇵🇸 Israel-Hamas Conflict

⚔️ Wars

One Piece Stocks

IPL yes

IPL2024

In 2 weeks, on May 17th, I will ask my grandfather if he knows who Sam Altman is. If he responds with 'Yes I do', and gives a general enough describer (e.g. 'CEO of OpenAI' or 'guy who made ChatGPT'), I will resolve this question YES. Otherwise, this question resolves NO.