A model called "gpt2-chatbot" is now available at 

 and is reportedly at a SOTA quality level. There is speculation that it might be a shadow drop of a new OpenAI model to test its performance without biases.

 nature of this market’s resolution, I reserve the right to place bets. However, I will do so only after at least 5 trades or trade orders from different traders have been made, to avoid any unfair advantage.

ChatGPT

🖥️ Technology

🤖 OpenAI

🤖 AI

Chatbot Arena Leaderboard

https://twitter.com/kosenjuu/status/1784952955294421215

Resolves YES if "gpt2-chatbot" is confirmed to be GPT-4.5/GPT-5/OpenAI's next big model. 

(click onto the "Direct Chat" tab, then select "gpt2-chatbot" as the model).

GPT-4 speculation

GPT-5 Speculation

Resolves YES if GPT-5 is publicly released before Jan 1, 2025; resolves NO otherwise.

Update from March 18: If the next OpenAI flagship model deviates from the GPT-N naming scheme 

 that is going to be released from OpenAI (e.g. they completely changed the trajectory of their naming scheme) then I will count it as "GPT-5" regardless.

However, if the next flagship model is not called GPT-5 but still conforms to the OpenAI GPT-N naming scheme (e.g. GPT-4.5) 

there will eventually be a model called GPT-5

 that will be released (i.e. they are going to continue with the same naming scheme) then I will not count it as "GPT-5".

IE "make me a 120 minute Star Trek / Star Wars crossover". It should be more or less comparable to a big-budget studio film, although it doesn't have to pass a full Turing Test as long as it's pretty good. The AI doesn't have to be available to the public, as long as it's confirmed to exist.

Scott Alexander's 5 year predictions

Technology

AI Media Creation

gpt-4.5 or 5 or whatever OpenAI's next model is called https://x.com/phill__1/status/1784964135920235000

'-4.5':2 '/phill__1/status/1784964135920235000':15 '5':4 'call':12 'gpt':1 'model':10 'next':9 'openai':7 'whatev':6 'x.com':14 'x.com/phill__1/status/1784964135920235000':13

new version of gpt-2 from 2019 https://x.com/albfresco/status/1784964830887104999

'-2':5 '/albfresco/status/1784964830887104999':10 '2019':7 'gpt':4 'new':1 'version':2 'x.com':9 'x.com/albfresco/status/1784964830887104999':8

new open-source model https://x.com/AndrewCurran_/status/1784975542028050739

'/andrewcurran_/status/1784975542028050739':8 'model':5 'new':1 'open':3 'open-sourc':2 'sourc':4 'x.com':7 'x.com/andrewcurran_/status/1784975542028050739':6

other (e.g. just an updated version of GPT-4)

'-4':9 'e.g':2 'gpt':8 'updat':5 'version':6

being benchmarked on LMSYS ChatBot Arena and has generated a ton of rumors and speculation on Twitter. Some users think this model might be OpenAI's next-generation model, while others believe it could be a fine-tuned version of one of OpenAI's old models, such as gpt-2 from 2019. I will resolve the market to the option most closely resembling the truth. 

Apple is reportedly working on a "ChatGPT rival" project codenamed "Ajax" internally. Release here means an internal LLM made accessible to external consumers and developers in any shape or format. Could be an Xcode code helper, improvements to Siri, integrations to photo or notes app as long as an internally developed LLM is being used.

🍎 Apple

Language Models

LLMs

ChatGPT 

https://github.com/KindXiaoming/pykan?tab=readme-ov-file

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40219205

I'm not sure exactly how to set the criteria. Perhaps based on 

Someone who knows more about ML benchmarks please chime in.

Machine Learning

AI Benchmarks

'harri':4 'potter':5 'severus':1 'snape':2

'cersei':1 'game':4 'lannist':2 'throne':6

'code':4 'geass':5 'lamperoug':2 'lelouch':1

Harry-James-Potter-Evans-Verres (from HPMOR)

'evan':5 'harri':2 'harry-james-potter-evans-verr':1 'hpmor':8 'jame':3 'potter':4 'verr':6

'anti':4 'anti-centrist':3 'centrist':5 'jreg':1 'satir':2

'solution':3 'techno':2 'techno-solution':1

'nuclear':4 'start':3 'war':5 'willing':1

You can help us in resolving options by spending at least 1 mana on each person/character/concept you have an opinion on. Buy YES if you think it's a right-wing thing, and NO if you think it's a left-wing thing.

You can submit any person/character/concept (shortened to p/c/c for the rest of the description), as well as a link / short phrase to give traders some context. If other people trade on your submission, you'll get mana off of their transaction fees.

I may N/A options for quality control, or edit them to provide a more neutral summary.

As a trader, you should buy any amount of YES in p/c/c you think are Right-Wing, buy any amount of NO in p/c/c you think are Left-Wing. I will leave the definition of those terms up to you. The amount of shares doesn't matter for the resolution, one share of yes is one vote and one hundred shares of yes is also one vote.

If I think you are voting purely as a troll, such as buying no in every option, I may block you or disregard your votes. Please vote in good faith! But hey, I can't read your mind. Ultimately this market is on the honor system. 

Note that market prices will be a bit strange here, because this is simultaneously a market and a poll. If you sell your shares, you are also removing your vote. I have unranked the market so it will not impact leagues. 

The market will close every Sunday at Noon EST. I will then check the positions tab on options that have been submitted. 

If there is a clear majority of YES holders, the option resolves YES. If there is a clear majority of NO holders, the option resolves NO. If it's very close and votes are still coming in, the option will remain un-resolved. The market will then re-open for new submissions, with a new close date the next week. This continues as long as I think the market is worth running. It does not matter what % the market is at, and bots holding a position are also counted. In a tie, the tweet will not resolve that week.

I may update these exact criteria to better match the spirit of the question if anyone has any good suggestions, so please leave a comment if you do.

🎨 Culture

🍿 Entertainment and Pop Culture

✖️ X (Twitter)

New York Mets beat Milwaukee Brewers - Mar 29

'29':8 'beat':4 'brewer':6 'mar':7 'met':3 'milwauke':5 'new':1 'york':2

Baltimore Orioles beat Los Angeles Angels - Mar 28

'28':8 'angel':5,6 'baltimor':1 'beat':3 'los':4 'mar':7 'oriol':2

Philadelphia Phillies beat Atlanta Braves - Mar 29

'29':7 'atlanta':4 'beat':3 'brave':5 'mar':6 'philadelphia':1 'philli':2

Chicago White Sox beat Detroit Tigers - Mar 28

'28':8 'beat':4 'chicago':1 'detroit':5 'mar':7 'sox':3 'tiger':6 'white':2

Cincinnati Reds beat Washington Nationals - Mar 28

'28':7 'beat':3 'cincinnati':1 'mar':6 'nation':5 'red':2 'washington':4

Houston Astros beat New York Yankees - Mar 28

'28':8 'astro':2 'beat':3 'houston':1 'mar':7 'new':4 'yanke':6 'york':5

Kansas City Royals beat Minnesota Twins - Mar 28

'28':8 'beat':4 'citi':2 'kansa':1 'mar':7 'minnesota':5 'royal':3 'twin':6

Los Angeles Dodgers beat St. Louis Cardinals - Mar 28

'28':9 'angel':2 'beat':4 'cardin':7 'dodger':3 'los':1 'loui':6 'mar':8 'st':5

Miami Marlins beat Pittsburgh Pirates - Mar 28

'28':7 'beat':3 'mar':6 'marlin':2 'miami':1 'pirat':5 'pittsburgh':4

San Diego Padres beat San Francisco Giants - Mar 28

'28':9 'beat':4 'diego':2 'francisco':6 'giant':7 'mar':8 'padr':3 'san':1,5

Tampa Bay Rays beat Toronto Blue Jays - Mar 28

'28':9 'bay':2 'beat':4 'blue':6 'jay':7 'mar':8 'ray':3 'tampa':1 'toronto':5

'28':7 'beat':3 'chicago':4 'cub':5 'mar':6 'ranger':2 'texa':1

Oakland Athletics beat Cleveland Guardians - Mar 28

'28':7 'athlet':2 'beat':3 'cleveland':4 'guardian':5 'mar':6 'oakland':1

Arizona Diamondbacks beat Colorado Rockies - Mar 28

'28':7 'arizona':1 'beat':3 'colorado':4 'diamondback':2 'mar':6 'rocki':5

Seattle Mariners beat Boston Red Sox - Mar 28

'28':8 'beat':3 'boston':4 'mar':7 'marin':2 'red':5 'seattl':1 'sox':6

Tampa Bay Rays beat Toronto Blue Jays - Mar 29

'29':9 'bay':2 'beat':4 'blue':6 'jay':7 'mar':8 'ray':3 'tampa':1 'toronto':5

Miami Marlins beat Pittsburgh Pirates - Mar 29

'29':7 'beat':3 'mar':6 'marlin':2 'miami':1 'pirat':5 'pittsburgh':4

Houston Astros beat New York Yankees - Mar 29

'29':8 'astro':2 'beat':3 'houston':1 'mar':7 'new':4 'yanke':6 'york':5

Arizona Diamondbacks beat Colorado Rockies - Mar 29

'29':7 'arizona':1 'beat':3 'colorado':4 'diamondback':2 'mar':6 'rocki':5

Oakland Athletics beat Cleveland Guardians - Mar 29

'29':7 'athlet':2 'beat':3 'cleveland':4 'guardian':5 'mar':6 'oakland':1

San Diego Padres beat San Francisco Giants - Mar 29

'29':9 'beat':4 'diego':2 'francisco':6 'giant':7 'mar':8 'padr':3 'san':1,5

Seattle Mariners beat Boston Red Sox - Mar 29

'29':8 'beat':3 'boston':4 'mar':7 'marin':2 'red':5 'seattl':1 'sox':6

Los Angeles Dodgers beat St. Louis Cardinals - Mar 29

'29':9 'angel':2 'beat':4 'cardin':7 'dodger':3 'los':1 'loui':6 'mar':8 'st':5

New York Mets beat Milwaukee Brewers - Mar 30

'30':8 'beat':4 'brewer':6 'mar':7 'met':3 'milwauke':5 'new':1 'york':2

Chicago White Sox beat Detroit Tigers - Mar 30

'30':8 'beat':4 'chicago':1 'detroit':5 'mar':7 'sox':3 'tiger':6 'white':2

Baltimore Orioles beat Los Angeles Angels - Mar 30

'30':8 'angel':5,6 'baltimor':1 'beat':3 'los':4 'mar':7 'oriol':2

Philadelphia Phillies beat Atlanta Braves - Mar 30

'30':7 'atlanta':4 'beat':3 'brave':5 'mar':6 'philadelphia':1 'philli':2

Oakland Athletics beat Cleveland Guardians - Mar 30

'30':7 'athlet':2 'beat':3 'cleveland':4 'guardian':5 'mar':6 'oakland':1

Cincinnati Reds beat Washington Nationals - Mar 30

'30':7 'beat':3 'cincinnati':1 'mar':6 'nation':5 'red':2 'washington':4

Kansas City Royals beat Minnesota Twins - Mar 30

'30':8 'beat':4 'citi':2 'kansa':1 'mar':7 'minnesota':5 'royal':3 'twin':6

Miami Marlins beat Pittsburgh Pirates - Mar 30

'30':7 'beat':3 'mar':6 'marlin':2 'miami':1 'pirat':5 'pittsburgh':4

Tampa Bay Rays beat Toronto Blue Jays - Mar 30

'30':9 'bay':2 'beat':4 'blue':6 'jay':7 'mar':8 'ray':3 'tampa':1 'toronto':5

'30':7 'beat':3 'chicago':4 'cub':5 'mar':6 'ranger':2 'texa':1

Houston Astros beat New York Yankees - Mar 30

'30':8 'astro':2 'beat':3 'houston':1 'mar':7 'new':4 'yanke':6 'york':5

San Diego Padres beat San Francisco Giants - Mar 30

'30':9 'beat':4 'diego':2 'francisco':6 'giant':7 'mar':8 'padr':3 'san':1,5

Arizona Diamondbacks beatColorado Rockies - Mar 30

'30':6 'arizona':1 'beatcolorado':3 'diamondback':2 'mar':5 'rocki':4

Los Angeles Dodgers beat St. Louis Cardinals - Mar 30

'30':9 'angel':2 'beat':4 'cardin':7 'dodger':3 'los':1 'loui':6 'mar':8 'st':5

Seattle Mariners beat Boston Red Sox - Mar 30

'30':8 'beat':3 'boston':4 'mar':7 'marin':2 'red':5 'seattl':1 'sox':6

Baltimore Orioles beat Los Angeles Angels - Mar 31

'31':8 'angel':5,6 'baltimor':1 'beat':3 'los':4 'mar':7 'oriol':2

Philadelphia Phillies beat Atlanta Braves - Mar 31

'31':7 'atlanta':4 'beat':3 'brave':5 'mar':6 'philadelphia':1 'philli':2

Cincinnati Reds beat Washington Nationals - Mar 31

'31':7 'beat':3 'cincinnati':1 'mar':6 'nation':5 'red':2 'washington':4

Miami Marlins beat Pittsburgh Pirates - Mar 31

'31':7 'beat':3 'mar':6 'marlin':2 'miami':1 'pirat':5 'pittsburgh':4

New York Mets beat Milwaukee Brewers - Mar 31

'31':8 'beat':4 'brewer':6 'mar':7 'met':3 'milwauke':5 'new':1 'york':2

Tampa Bay Rays beat Toronto Blue Jays - Mar 31

'31':9 'bay':2 'beat':4 'blue':6 'jay':7 'mar':8 'ray':3 'tampa':1 'toronto':5

Chicago White Sox beat Detroit Tigers - Mar 31

'31':8 'beat':4 'chicago':1 'detroit':5 'mar':7 'sox':3 'tiger':6 'white':2

Houston Astros beat  New York Yankees - Mar 31

'31':8 'astro':2 'beat':3 'houston':1 'mar':7 'new':4 'yanke':6 'york':5

Kansas City Royals beat Minnesota Twins - Mar 31

'31':8 'beat':4 'citi':2 'kansa':1 'mar':7 'minnesota':5 'royal':3 'twin':6

'31':7 'beat':3 'chicago':4 'cub':5 'mar':6 'ranger':2 'texa':1

Oakland Athletics beat Cleveland Guardians - Mar 31

'31':7 'athlet':2 'beat':3 'cleveland':4 'guardian':5 'mar':6 'oakland':1

Arizona Diamondbacks beat Colorado Rockies - Mar 31

'31':7 'arizona':1 'beat':3 'colorado':4 'diamondback':2 'mar':6 'rocki':5

San Diego Padres beat San Francisco Giants - Mar 31

'31':9 'beat':4 'diego':2 'francisco':6 'giant':7 'mar':8 'padr':3 'san':1,5

Seattle Mariners beat Boston Red Sox - Mar 31

'31':8 'beat':3 'boston':4 'mar':7 'marin':2 'red':5 'seattl':1 'sox':6

Los Angeles Dodgers beat St. Louis Cardinals - Mar 31

'31':9 'angel':2 'beat':4 'cardin':7 'dodger':3 'los':1 'loui':6 'mar':8 'st':5

Chicago White Sox beat Atlanta Braves - Apr 1

'1':8 'apr':7 'atlanta':5 'beat':4 'brave':6 'chicago':1 'sox':3 'white':2

Chicago Cubs beat Colorado Rockies - Apr 1

'1':7 'apr':6 'beat':3 'chicago':1 'colorado':4 'cub':2 'rocki':5

Washington Nationals beat Pittsburgh Pirates - Apr 1

'1':7 'apr':6 'beat':3 'nation':2 'pirat':5 'pittsburgh':4 'washington':1

Baltimore Orioles beat Kansas City Royals - Apr 1

'1':8 'apr':7 'baltimor':1 'beat':3 'citi':5 'kansa':4 'oriol':2 'royal':6

Miami Marlins beat Los Angeles Angels - Apr 1

'1':8 'angel':5,6 'apr':7 'beat':3 'los':4 'marlin':2 'miami':1

Philadelphia Phillies beat Cincinnati Reds - Apr 1

'1':7 'apr':6 'beat':3 'cincinnati':4 'philadelphia':1 'philli':2 'red':5

Tampa Bay Rays beat Texas Rangers - Apr 1

'1':8 'apr':7 'bay':2 'beat':4 'ranger':6 'ray':3 'tampa':1 'texa':5

New York Mets beat Detroit Tigers - Apr 1

'1':8 'apr':7 'beat':4 'detroit':5 'met':3 'new':1 'tiger':6 'york':2

Houston Astros beat Toronto Blue Jays - Apr 1

'1':8 'apr':7 'astro':2 'beat':3 'blue':5 'houston':1 'jay':6 'toronto':4

Arizona Diamondbacks beat New York Yankees - Apr 1

'1':8 'apr':7 'arizona':1 'beat':3 'diamondback':2 'new':4 'yanke':6 'york':5

Oakland Athletics beat Boston Red Sox - Apr 1

'1':8 'apr':7 'athlet':2 'beat':3 'boston':4 'oakland':1 'red':5 'sox':6

San Diego Padres beat St. Louis Cardinals - Apr 1

'1':9 'apr':8 'beat':4 'cardin':7 'diego':2 'loui':6 'padr':3 'san':1 'st':5

Seattle Mariners beat Cleveland Guardians - Apr 1

'1':7 'apr':6 'beat':3 'cleveland':4 'guardian':5 'marin':2 'seattl':1

Los Angeles Dodgers beat San Francisco Giants - Apr 1

'1':9 'angel':2 'apr':8 'beat':4 'dodger':3 'francisco':6 'giant':7 'los':1 'san':5

Milwaukee Brewers beat Minnesota Twins - Apr 2

'2':7 'apr':6 'beat':3 'brewer':2 'milwauke':1 'minnesota':4 'twin':5

Baltimore Orioles beat Kansas City Royals - Apr 2

'2':8 'apr':7 'baltimor':1 'beat':3 'citi':5 'kansa':4 'oriol':2 'royal':6

Miami Marlins beat Los Angeles Angels - Apr 2

'2':8 'angel':5,6 'apr':7 'beat':3 'los':4 'marlin':2 'miami':1

Philadelphia Phillies beat Cincinnati Reds - Apr 2

'2':7 'apr':6 'beat':3 'cincinnati':4 'philadelphia':1 'philli':2 'red':5