For market to resolve YES there has to be a video posted of the toddler making the market. No help from adults! This means they have to do everything starting by clicking the "create question" button all the way until the market is created.
Toddler = aged between 1 and 3 inclusive
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I think this is unlikely by August 2.
I think it is feasible for a kids who is almost 4 - 3 years 11 months, to do this, but their parents will need to train them. You would need in addition to find a parent who is on MM, who is willing to do this, willing to film and upload it. Getting the 3.9 year old to type is the hardest part - mouse movement is OK. Also Getting them to concentrate and want to do it etc.
I think it is possible in general. If the question was "is there a toddler out there who could do this if trained" I would say yes.
@Undox My 15 year old could probably teach his sister (different mother), I think she is still 3 and record it. My son is on here, he just won't tell me his username or else I would @ him. I'll mention it to him when I see him next weekend.
@levifinkelstein I’m evaluating if the mana and popularity I could gain on this site is worth the risk to social capital that comes from asking an acquaintance “Can I borrow your toddler for a few minutes? Um, it’s for science. Have you heard of prediction markets?” … currently it doesn’t seem like the trade is worth it. 😂
I have studied toddler theory in the academy and according to Hokusai's toddler limb schematic this is provably impossible due to the presence of four different types of severe motor control inaccuracies. My model might be based on faulty assumption though, for example in the case where multiverse theory is true.