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https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DZoGEHzZNRsMjfpfE/addendum-a-non-magical-explanation-of-jeffrey-epstein

How are you still allowed to create markets?

FYI y'all levi is our resident troll, please don't put too much mana in this, or any of his markets.

What did the evidence as of the open date indicate?

ain’t no way

@calm “epstein didn’t kill himself” may not be true but it is truer than true and i’d gladly waste 25 mana to say so

It's worth pointing out that conditional on no there's still a good chance it was the guards or others at the prison. Pedophiles are really hated in prison. And much easier for a guard than some random outside actor barging in.

@nathanwei So like, I think Epstein probably killed himself, but even if not, it's probably not a conspiracy.

Epstein didn't kill himself, he was silenced to avoid the truth about rationalussy getting out.

@ButtocksCocktoasten I wasn’t aware that rationalussy was that young.

There is no evidence against Epstein's death being suicide other than conjecture, meanwhile there is a lot of evidence suggesting suicide, I don't really know where the meme came from in the first place but it's very silly.

@PedeJo by "evidence" I mean any observation that changes the probability. Under this definition it's basically never the case the there's evidence for only one side.

@levifinkelstein Apologies for my hyperbole, I didn't mean there is literally no evidence, it's just that I think the probability of Epstein's death being suicide is very high after looking at a non-zero amount of the available information.

@PedeJo im not as well read into this subject, but from articles and wiki, it doenst seem that weird that the Epstein didn't kill himself meme spawned out of it.

@PedeJo The base rate of people accused of crimes like that killing themselves is high. The base rate of people accused of crimes like that being murdered is higher.

If you had to close it now, how would you resolve ?

@Odoacre 50%