Will china have a top model in the next two years
9
Ṁ100Ṁ3382027
67%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
In the next two years, there will be at least one day in which the top model on the Epoch capabilities index or reasonable successor is Chinese?
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will there be any Chinese Fable-level models by March 2027, defined as a model with an ECI score of 160 or higher?
99% chance
Will a Chinese model top LMArena by EOY 2026?
34% chance
Will the top model on LiveBench be Chinese on Jan 1st, 2028?
40% chance
Will the top Chinese AI model exceed the top US AI model before 2028?
38% chance
Will China have a female leader before 2060?
20% chance
Will China have its first female General Secretary before Russia has its first female President?
36% chance