Background. The UK's top marginal income tax rate in income is currently 45% for income over £125,140. There are currently no announced plans to increase the top marginal income tax rate. However, there has been some speculation that the government may try to increase its tax revenues in light of budgetary pressures.
Resolution criteria.
This market will resolve YES if the UK government announces or implements an increase to the top marginal income tax rate (currently 45%) that takes effect in calendar year 2025. Otherwise, the market will resolve NO.
The relevant tax rate is the top marginal tax rate on income for England, Northern Ireland, and Wales, not including national insurance contributions.
Whether the market resolves YES is independent of whether the government changes the threshold at which the top marginal rate starts to be paid or makes other changes to the UK's system of taxation.
Resolution will be based on a consensus of credible reporting from reputable news sources (e.g. the BBC).
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