Any change to personal income taxes that would yield higher taxes for some income levels would be sufficient to resolve yes (even if the tax rate would be lowered for other income levels).
Fine print: For the purposes of this question, only the tax rate for England, Northern Ireland, and Wales is considered and only income after personal allowances is considered. A tax increase after a tax decrease would still resolve yes. The tax rate considered is the regular income tax + National Insurance.
Here's the data for the last few years:
Related market:
1,000
3.00This should resolve "yes" already since: "The tax rate considered is the regular income tax + National Insurance."
The UK has just increased national insurance rates (specifically, "employer national insurance"). I assume you are counting "employer national insurance" as part of "national insurance"?
https://ifs.org.uk/data-items/increase-employer-national-insurance-contributions-employee-earnings-2025-26
@ItzhakRasooly Even though I agree that the "Employer national insurance" should count as income tax when discussing tax policy in general, this questions is aimed at how the tax rate affects individuals directly. That is, assume that someone earns £X per year, assuming that £X doesn't change will their take home pay (ignoring personal allowance) be reduced because of taxes. Therefore I will not count an increase in employer national insurance.