Catastrophic aviation accidents between Christmas 2025 and February 2026
5
125Ṁ315Feb 1
3.13 accidents
expected1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
86%
Above 0
50%
Above 2
34%
Above 4
17%
Above 6
13%
Above 8
Commercial aviation accidents between Dec 25th 2025 and Feb 1st 2026 will count toward this question if any of the following apply in a single incident:
-total hull loss of one or more aircraft
-5 or more fatalities (air or ground)
-10 or more people injured (air or ground)
"Commercial" meaning non-private / hobbyist aviation. For instance, cargo, airliner, or paid tourist flights.
A qualifying accident can involve any aircraft type including helicopters and large UAVs. Military aircraft operating under wartime conditions will not count.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Sort by:
https://x.com/osiosint1/status/2007136754332213638 seems likely to be a hull loss though maybe not
People are also trading
Related questions
Fatal Canadian airliner incident by end of 2027?
20% chance
USA aviation accident in Russia before end of 2028
22% chance
Will any "DEI hire" pilot on a US airline make a mistake that results in at least one other person's death before 2028?
34% chance
Will there be a fatal space accident before 2030?
59% chance