Catastrophic aviation accidents between Christmas 2025 and February 2026
2
125Ṁ70
Feb 1
-0.38 accidents
expected
83%
Above 0
50%
Above 2
50%
Above 4
24%
Above 6
24%
Above 8

Commercial aviation accidents between Dec 25th 2025 and Feb 1st 2026 will count toward this question if any of the following apply in a single incident:

-total hull loss of one or more aircraft

-5 or more fatalities (air or ground)

-10 or more people injured (air or ground)

"Commercial" meaning non-private / hobbyist aviation. For instance, cargo, airliner, or paid tourist flights.

A qualifying accident can involve any aircraft type including helicopters and large UAVs. Military aircraft operating under wartime conditions will not count.

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