Catastrophic aviation accidents between Christmas 2025 and February 2026
2
125Ṁ70Feb 1
-0.38 accidents
expected1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
83%
Above 0
50%
Above 2
50%
Above 4
24%
Above 6
24%
Above 8
Commercial aviation accidents between Dec 25th 2025 and Feb 1st 2026 will count toward this question if any of the following apply in a single incident:
-total hull loss of one or more aircraft
-5 or more fatalities (air or ground)
-10 or more people injured (air or ground)
"Commercial" meaning non-private / hobbyist aviation. For instance, cargo, airliner, or paid tourist flights.
A qualifying accident can involve any aircraft type including helicopters and large UAVs. Military aircraft operating under wartime conditions will not count.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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