I have previously written about my surprise when discovering how good Metaculus is compared to prediction markets (which is what I have previous experience with): https://two-wrongs.com/first-impressions-of-metaculus
I have decided to try Manifold in parallel now to see what a modern prediction market is like -- and so far I'm enjoying it more than I thought I would, but in different ways than I enjoy Metaculus.
I am yet undecided as to whether I enjoy Manifold or Metaculus more (as far as I'm concerned, it's 50 %). I will write a similar first impressions article in a few weeks, and at that point I will also judge which format I enjoy using more. YES in this question means you believe I will enjoy using Manifold more than Metaculus.
(Note that this question has nothing to do with which format I believe leads to better predictions, or which resolves more reliably, or has larger user base, or more societal benefit, etc. It is purely about my subjective enjoyment.)
I will not hold any shares in this question.
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I can now resolve this as No, unfortunately. My detailed reasoning here: https://two-wrongs.com/first-impressions-of-manifold.html
I don't have much experience with Metaculus. Is it possible to make your own markets there? That's one thing I like about Manifold, but it doesn't come into play much early on when you don't have much mana yet.
Surprising to see you go 50-50. What’s making you find it that close between both platforms?
On Manifold I’ve found there to be a really high number of low quality questions, and the UI isn’t pleasant for finding them; with Metaculus it’s the exact opposite. Metaculus is also much more competitive and there’s numerous tournaments with substantial real money prizes.
@vitamind so far, I agree with all of that! What I think brings me enjoyment with Manifold is that it's somewhat well gamified. You know those idle resource collector games that are popular with students and office workers? Manifold has sort of that function to me at the moment, except I also get to pretend I'm good at something meaningful while I play it.
So the main question for me is whether I will grow tired of it -- like the multitude of resource collector games that are satisfying for a short while -- or discover some depth to Manifold that I have not yet perceived.
@kqr Yes, I somewhat understand what you mean. I still don’t see how that results in your 50-50 rating, I think you’ve put that there to come across as neutral ;)
I’ll attempt monitor your performance on Metaculus (quarterly cup for example), and manage my position on this market accordingly. Perform poor on there, then I reckon you’ll gravitate towards Manifold more.
