kottsiek avatar
kottsiek
resolved Jan 29
Will Magnus Carlsen win the Tata Steel Masters 2023?
Resolved
NO

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daniel avatar
Daniel
predicted NO at 4%

Now it definitely can be resolved. Giri has been officially declared the winner.

kottsiek avatar
kottsiek
bought Ṁ100 of NO

@daniel I actually can't find the official declaration x)

kottsiek avatar
kottsiek
predicted NO at 4%

But I will resolve in 5 Minutes either way

daniel avatar
Daniel
predicted NO at 3%

This can resolve to NO, it's impossible for Magnus to finish first, or even end up in a tie break.

BoltonBailey avatar
Bolton Bailey
bought Ṁ100 of NO

@daniel If Carlsen wins and Nodirbek, Giri, and So lose in the last round, Carlsen will be tied for first, no?

kottsiek avatar
kottsiek
predicted NO at 3%

@daniel I will wait for official confirmation, regardless of possible scores, since people might still get disqualified.

NamesAreHard avatar

@daniel If Magnus wins, Nodirbek loses, and Anish doesn't win, then Magnus gets a tie break.

daniel avatar
Daniel
predicted NO at 3%

@BoltonBailey Nope, if they tie at the main score, the Sonneborn–Berger score breaks the tie. This makes it impossible for both So and Carlsen to win, because they won against weaker opponents than Giri and Nodirbek. It doesn't matter what happens in the other matches.

Giri and Nodi can both still win, however.

daniel avatar
Daniel
predicted NO at 3%

@NamesAreHard Nope, the SB score breaks ties.

BoltonBailey avatar
Bolton Bailey
sold Ṁ48 of NO

@daniel While the standing display the S-B score, I don't see it mentioned in the tiebreak rules for the Masters section.

BoltonBailey avatar
Bolton Bailey
predicted NO at 3%

@BoltonBailey Slight correction: It is mentioned, but only in that it determines the pairings in the case of a four-player tiebreak. The rules do say:

If the top two or more players score the same number of points in the Tata Steel Chess Tournament 2022, a tiebreak to determine the tournament winner will be played.

NamesAreHard avatar
firstuserhere avatar
firstuserhere
predicted NO at 20%

Why is this so high?

firstuserhere avatar
firstuserhere
bought Ṁ10 of NO

@firstuserhere ah okay, found it. Wasn't aware of yesterday's results

firstuserhere avatar
firstuserhere
predicted NO at 20%

@firstuserhere a full point! Nice

jonny avatar
Jonny Spicer
bought Ṁ100 of NO

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