Will an LLM defeat Magnus Carlsen before 2029?
3
Ṁ100Ṁ1302028
22%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market will be resolved as YES if Magnus Carlsen loses to a Large Language Model before Jan 1, 2029. If the LLM uses a chess engine like Stockfish or writes its own chess engine during the game, it doesn't count.
In the unlikely scenario that Magnus Carlsen retires from playing chess before 2029, the market will be resolved as N/A.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will Magnus Carlsen become the FIDE World Chess Champion again by 2031?
9% chance
Will anyone top Magnus Carlsen's peak ELO of 2882 by the end of 2026?
8% chance
Will Magnus Carlsen compete for the FIDE Classical World Chess Championship before 2033?
11% chance
Will Magnus Carlsen compete in a Candidate's tournament before 2029?
15% chance
Will Magnus Carlsen be the highest FIDE rating chess player at the end of 2029?
41% chance
Will Magnus Carlsen have the highest ELO in the world in mid 2026?
96% chance
Will Magnus Carlsen have two children by May 2030?
55% chance
Will Magnus Carlsen crack 2900?
11% chance
Will Magnus Carlsen play a classical game against Hans Niemann before 2030?
31% chance