Will a military skirmish with at least one casualty take place outside of Earth's atmosphere before 2050?
Will a military skirmish with at least one casualty take place outside of Earth's atmosphere before 2050?
11
210Ṁ4632050
24%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if a military skirmish with at least one casualty takes place outside of Earths atmosphere before 2050.
For the sake of this market, "outside Earth's atmosphere" means above the Kármán line.
Both parties involved need to be present out side of earths atmosphere.
At least one party needs to be from earth, but the other party can be extra terrestrial.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will someone die in outer space before 2030?
32% chance
Will over 1000 people live permanently outside Earth's atmosphere by 2050?
43% chance
Will a human intentionally kill another human in space by 2050?
42% chance
Will there be a soccer game outside of earth’s atmosphere by the end of 2040
22% chance
Will there be space wars by 2050
34% chance
Will there be someone intentionally killed in space before the end of 2100 (according to main stream media)?
60% chance
Physical fight in space through 2031
23% chance
Will anyone die in space before 2030?
30% chance
Will a nuclear bomb be detonated in space by 2050?
67% chance
Will a significant man-made object (>100kg) re-enter Earth's atmosphere and cause property damage before 2030?
50% chance