What will be the first full sentence generated by the Manifold Next Word Prediction Model (MNWPM) experiment?
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resolved Jan 8
100%94%
Manifold will always predict that people are mostly pretty silly
0.1%
Manifold will always predict that people are large language models.
0.1%
Manifold will always predict that people are mostly selfish.
0.2%
Manifold will always predict that people are wiser than me.
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Manifold will always predict that people are wiser than @GordanKnott
0.1%
Manifold will always predict that people are mostly harmless. Mostly.
0.2%
Manifold will always predict that people are mostly not predictable.
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Manifold will always predict that people are mostly rational.
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Manifold will always predict that people are mostly harmless.
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Manifold will always predict that people are mostly not smart.
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Manifold will always predict that people are mostly not bad.
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Manifold will always predict that people are mostly not wise.
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Manifold will always predict that people are mostly harmless creatures.
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Manifold will always predict that people are mostly not @GordonKnott
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Manifold will always predict that people are mostly pretty rationalussy.
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Manifold will always predict that people are mostly pretty smart.
0.1%
Manifold will always predict that people are mostly pretty moist.
0.3%
Manifold will always predict that people are mostly pretty predictable.
0.1%
Manifold will always predict that people are mostly pretty optimistic
4%
Manifold will always predict that people are mostly pretty unpredictable.
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i was on in on "Other-No" and it lost, why did I lose my money???

No idea, this markets resolved to the correct answer.

Why did you consider my resolution not being honest (as implied by your 1 star resolution rating)?

@DrewRukavina Markets where new answers can be added have a special "other" option with a little 'i' next to it. New answers are split off from other. If you bet YES on that option, you are betting that the market will resolve to an option that hasn't been added yet. If you bet NO, you are betting that the market will not resolve to an answer that hasn't been added yet

This needs to be resolved before I resolve Day 10?

The experiment is printing out ten words. How does this resolve if those ten words do not form a "full sentence"? By "full sentence" do you mean "whatever the ten word output is"?

@Tumbles Yes, my thought was that the first full sentence ends either explicitly when the experiment generates a ".", or implicitly after 10 generated words. Probably should have been a bit clear on that. The sentence does not need to be syntactically correct to count.

@komplexkonjugat

It doesn't look like this market cares if the sentence is coherent or not, therefore I think it should resolve as other. If this market required the sentence to be coherent and the MNWPM output was incoherent, it would resolve NA.

I don't think there will be any punctuation in experiment 1

How will you stop people seeing how MNWPM resolves and then piling onto this? Is there a way to pause the market (not take any more bets) before resolving it?

@GordanKnott When people pile on mana in a market where the result is already certain, it's called "news-trading". There has been talk about a way Manifold could allow creators to negate it if they wish, but it hasn't been implemented yet. At this time newstrading is generally seen as fine and not something worth stopping.

Currently, if a creator dislikes newstrading on their markets the only way they can stop it is by closing (but not necessarily resolving) the market early. This is not the norm for most creators, but it is perfectly acceptable

@Tumbles how do you close? Can you resolve after that?

@GordanKnott Yup! Markets automatically close when they are scheduled to, and creators can also close their market by clicking on the close time (under the title, to the right).

A closed market doesn't allowing buying or selling of shares. From there it can either be reopened or resolved

@Tumbles so to prevent news-trading @komplexkonjugat would need to close this market before I resolve Day 10. This market is currently due to resolve on 4th Feb!

At least I now know it's possible 🙏

@GordanKnott I never intended to try to prevent news trading. Will close and resolve this market after day 10 is resolved. Punctuation will be implied. Feb 4 is a place holder, when I created this market I missed the part that said that the experiment was only running four 10 days, I thought it would continue on generating, and set a date far enough in the future that it most likely would have had time to generate a first sentence (and if it had gone on generating a sentence longer than 30 words I would have extended it).

This is two full sentences.

@samikki Yepp, this market would never resolve to this option.

Hugh Laurie House GIF by PeacockTV

...wiser with money ...wiser in crowds ...wiser than person's

It's got options

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