Basic
1.1k
แน€755k
resolved Aug 25
Resolved
YES

Twitter permanently banned former president of the USA, Donald Trump, from the platform in January 2021 during the final days of his term. His handle @realDonaldTrump had over 88.9 million followers.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald J. Trump's verified Twitter account (@realDonaldTrump) tweets at least once in 2023 (ET timezone). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be Donald J. Trump's verified Twitter account: https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump.

Please note, only the @realDonaldTrump verified Twitter account counts for this market, regardless of the URL for this profile. If Donald J. Trump tweets from another account, it has no bearing on the resolution of this market.

//note: If any 2023 tweets appear on @realdonaldtrump timeline, it resolves yes.

This includes retweets, images, 'long tweets' ,Twitter Spaces announced, and other quasitweets published on the profile.


That was the market for 2022:

Get แน€1,000 play money

๐Ÿ… Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1แน€37,015
2แน€34,092
3แน€8,797
4แน€4,671
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predicted NO

@ZachEsenbock , please... ๐Ÿ˜‚

predicted NO

@itsTomekK Trump has tweeted, end of story!

predicted NO

@itsTomekK Factually incorrect.

predicted NO
predicted NO

@ZachEsenbock New York Times article stating โ€œTweets are now postsโ€.

predicted YES

@ZachEsenbock Youโ€™re right, but the market description already accounts for this possibility:

โ€œnote: If any 2023 tweets appear on @realdonaldtrump timeline, it resolves yes.

This includes retweets, images, 'long tweets' ,Twitter Spaces announced, and other quasitweets published on the profile.โ€ (Emphasis added)

How is a post not a quasitweet?

predicted NO

@JimHays โ€œEmphasis addedโ€, yet it is the only item in the list NOT emphasized. It is also spelled without a hyphen, I allege here, to create ambiguity in the definition. Given these two circumstances, I believe the made up term โ€œquasitweetโ€ should be disregarded in the decision to resolve this market. See the screenshot below from Manifoldโ€™s rules.

@ZachEsenbock Resolving this NO because of the technicality that it's a "post" and not a Tweet despite being posted on (the website formerly known as) Twitter would have been a violation of that rule.

predicted YES

Youโ€™ve had a long time to anticipate and raise this objection. That the market didnโ€™t crash when tweets were renamed posts made it clear this was not how bettors interpreted the market.

predicted NO

@JimHays Two completely irrelevant points to the argument at hand.

predicted NO

@evergreenemily Both sides of the argument could make the same point with the same level of validity.

Buy low, sell high.

What is Twitter?

predicted NO

Boys, it's a sad day

predicted NO

YOU'VE RUINED ME TRUMP

@pain how are you diamond lol

predicted NO

@n1psey i really donโ€™t know honestly haha

Thought I had a no open on this one. ๐Ÿ˜…๐Ÿ˜ช

Resolve no, tweets are now called posts.

predicted NO

@red please

predicted YES

Well fellas, I've officially done it

predicted YES

@Gen Roughly M100k profit from this one across all the markets. Doubters ???

@Gen 1350 market needs more tourture ๐Ÿ˜†

predicted YES

@Gen you've finally made it in the material world with vast hordes of mana, its time to begin the inner journey

He didnโ€™t tweet, he xeeted, resolve NO!