Donald Trump's return on Twitter: Will @realDonaldTrump tweet in 2023?
1.1K
2K
resolved Aug 25
Resolved
YES

Twitter permanently banned former president of the USA, Donald Trump, from the platform in January 2021 during the final days of his term. His handle @realDonaldTrump had over 88.9 million followers.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald J. Trump's verified Twitter account (@realDonaldTrump) tweets at least once in 2023 (ET timezone). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be Donald J. Trump's verified Twitter account: https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump.

Please note, only the @realDonaldTrump verified Twitter account counts for this market, regardless of the URL for this profile. If Donald J. Trump tweets from another account, it has no bearing on the resolution of this market.

//note: If any 2023 tweets appear on @realdonaldtrump timeline, it resolves yes.

This includes retweets, images, 'long tweets' ,Twitter Spaces announced, and other quasitweets published on the profile.


That was the market for 2022:

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itsTomekK avatar
Tomek K 🟡predicted NO

@ZachEsenbock , please... 😂

itsTomekK avatar
Tomek K 🟡predicted NO

@itsTomekK Trump has tweeted, end of story!

ZachEsenbock avatar
Zach Esenbockpredicted NO

@itsTomekK Factually incorrect.

ZachEsenbock avatar
Zach Esenbockpredicted NO
ZachEsenbock avatar
Zach Esenbockpredicted NO

@ZachEsenbock New York Times article stating “Tweets are now posts”.

JimHays avatar
Jim Hayspredicted YES

@ZachEsenbock You’re right, but the market description already accounts for this possibility:

“note: If any 2023 tweets appear on @realdonaldtrump timeline, it resolves yes.

This includes retweets, images, 'long tweets' ,Twitter Spaces announced, and other quasitweets published on the profile.” (Emphasis added)

How is a post not a quasitweet?

ZachEsenbock avatar
Zach Esenbockpredicted NO

@JimHays “Emphasis added”, yet it is the only item in the list NOT emphasized. It is also spelled without a hyphen, I allege here, to create ambiguity in the definition. Given these two circumstances, I believe the made up term “quasitweet” should be disregarded in the decision to resolve this market. See the screenshot below from Manifold’s rules.

jakgnfdaghfjkahg avatar
shgfshggsgshgf

@ZachEsenbock Resolving this NO because of the technicality that it's a "post" and not a Tweet despite being posted on (the website formerly known as) Twitter would have been a violation of that rule.

JimHays avatar
Jim Hayspredicted YES

You’ve had a long time to anticipate and raise this objection. That the market didn’t crash when tweets were renamed posts made it clear this was not how bettors interpreted the market.

ZachEsenbock avatar
Zach Esenbockpredicted NO

@JimHays Two completely irrelevant points to the argument at hand.

ZachEsenbock avatar
Zach Esenbockpredicted NO

@evergreenemily Both sides of the argument could make the same point with the same level of validity.

TeddyWeverka avatar
Teddy Weverka

Buy low, sell high.

Bart5f6d avatar
Bertbought Ṁ1 of NO

What is Twitter?

Wobbles avatar
Wobblespredicted NO

Boys, it's a sad day

pain avatar
painpredicted NO

YOU'VE RUINED ME TRUMP

n1psey avatar
nps

@pain how are you diamond lol

pain avatar
painpredicted NO

@n1psey i really don’t know honestly haha

Daniel_MC avatar
Danielsold Ṁ14 of YES

Thought I had a no open on this one. 😅😪

red avatar
Chixbought Ṁ50 of NO

Resolve no, tweets are now called posts.

Sanargama avatar
Sanargamapredicted NO

@red please

Gen avatar
Genzypredicted YES

Well fellas, I've officially done it

Gen avatar
Genzypredicted YES

@Gen Roughly M100k profit from this one across all the markets. Doubters ???

SirCryptomind avatar
SirCryptomind

@Gen 1350 market needs more tourture 😆

Blomfilter avatar
Blomfilterpredicted YES

@Gen you've finally made it in the material world with vast hordes of mana, its time to begin the inner journey

ZacharyKleinfa41 avatar
Zachary Klein

He didn’t tweet, he xeeted, resolve NO!