Resolution Criteria

The Assembly of Experts — a body of 88 Islamic clerics — selects a new supreme leader following the death or removal of the incumbent. This market resolves YES if Ali Larijani is officially selected and confirmed as Supreme Leader of Iran by the Assembly of Experts. It resolves NO if any other individual is selected, or if the Islamic Republic's system of governance fundamentally changes such that the position of Supreme Leader is abolished or substantially altered.

Resolution will be determined by official announcements from Iran's government or credible international news sources confirming Larijani's appointment.

Background

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in an Israeli strike Saturday as part of a massive joint military operation between the U.S. and Israel on February 28, 2026. Ali Larijani — secretary of Iran's supreme national security council, former parliament speaker and one of Khamenei's closest confidants — survived, and with much of the leadership killed, has emerged as the most senior civilian official still standing.

Larijani is not a religious cleric and therefore cannot be considered a potential successor in the traditional sense. Constitutionally, the Assembly of Experts is tasked to select the next leader. As of January 2026, no person has been officially declared as the heir to Khamenei nor as a nominee, though various sources such as Reuters and BBC News have reported on potential candidates.

Considerations

A successor will have to be a cleric. If you didn't have a cleric succeeding Khamenei, you would no longer have an Islamic revolution. You'd no longer have an Islamic republic. It would be a completely different system. This constitutional requirement presents a significant structural barrier to Larijani's succession, despite his current de facto authority and proximity to power. If the regime itself collapses, the question resolves NO. The occupant of the position on March 31 2026 is considered. If the position remains vacant then, the question resolves NO

This description was generated by AI.