🏅 Top traders

Nice to see some progress on this in these two articles today and yesterday. I don't think it will change the result of this market in the next 8 days, but I was glad to see my my expected profit go down today.

https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/west-african-bloc-holds-talks-niger-with-junta-2023-08-19/

West African bloc meets Niger's ousted president, junta leader in Niamey

A delegation from West Africa's main regional bloc ECOWAS on Saturday met Niger's ousted President Mohamed Bazoum and held talks with junta leader General Abdourahmane Tiani in the capital Niamey, a Nigerian presidential spokesperson said.

https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/west-african-militaries-meet-finalise-possible-niger-intervention-2023-08-18/

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/8/14/niger-military-to-prosecute-mohamed-bazoum-for-high-treason

Niger military to prosecute deposed president for ‘high treason’

Charges against Mohamed Bazoum come hours after a Nigerian delegation said Niger’s coup leaders were open to diplomacy.

@KevinKwok7fb0 , What if there is a prison breakout and he regains his position with outside help. In other words he is not 'released'? I didn't have that on my bingo card...

@parhizj I too am learning the edge cases of structuring a manifold market heh. I am open to others thoughts. I think that he needs to be de facto in control of the government. There can still be rival dissident factions. But he needs to be the primary person running the country for this market to resolve YES.

So he can escape detainment via external force and have it still resolve yes. But if he escapes via say French help. But is not in control of the country by end date, the market should still resolve NO.

https://www.democracynow.org/2023/7/27/headlines/military_officers_claim_to_have_deposed_nigers_president

Military Officers Claim to Have Deposed Niger’s President

In Niger, military officers announced Wednesday they had overthrown President Mohamed Bazoum, imposing a curfew and shutting down borders in the West African nation. Colonel Major Amadou Abdramane addressed Niger on national television late Wednesday, flanked by other military members. Col. Maj. Am…

not looking great. https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/27/world/africa/niger-coup.html

Does he need to be president de-facto or de-jure?

@AlexbGoode I think de facto. Like he cannot be detained but intl community says he is still president.

@KevinKwok7fb0 Yeah this was exactly my question. Because it might take longer for the international community to recognize a new government.