Would creating a Manifold Minecraft server be successful?

100Ṁ65

resolved May 21

Resolved

ALL

Where successful means:

20+ people as active users for 2 months
5+ long term friendships formed
Interesting prop bets created involving server culture/events. Much like Manifest/LessOnline

Market resolves based on a poll, unless…

If probability of success is over 65% I will consider creating the server. However, if you think this is a good idea and already have the means to create the server by all means steal this idea and run.

in this case, market will resolve based on

my own judgement and server statistics if available.

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2 Comments

5 Holders

6 Trades

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bought Ṁ25 NO11mo

This is really a cool idea! I don't think it'd be successful, especially if not run by well-known users, though. Because many people simply wouldn't know. But maybe we should try it anyway. I can help or host the server myself

... Should we name the server "ManiCraft" or "CraftFold"?

11mo

I vote ManiCraft

What is this?

What is Manifold?

Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.

Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.

Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.

Are our predictions accurate?

Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.

In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.

Why use play money?

Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.

Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.

People are also trading

When will someone first manage to get Manifold running locally?

Will >1 person make a Manifold account as a result of my class presentation heavily promoting it?

70% chance

Will a Karma System be successful on Manifold, if implemented?

58% chance

Will I create my own manifold with no lag?

11% chance

Will a bookmark page on Manifold be successful, if implemented?

85% chance

Will Manifold support federation between instances of Manifold by 2030?

41% chance

How can Manifold improve?

Ṁ3,196 bounty

Who will make the best Manifold meme?

Ṁ1,506 bounty

What is this?

What is Manifold?

Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.

Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.

Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.

Are our predictions accurate?

Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.

Why use play money?

Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.

🏅 Top traders

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