Utah is another state in the middle of a measles outbreak but overall has lower vaccination rates than Texas (According to NBS News). Had 12 new cases in the last week. As of the market creation there are 142 cases. On top of this holiday season will probably have family get together making the outbreak worse. So how many cases will there be for this outbreak by the end of Jan-2026?
Resolution will use the official Utah Gov website. If the number gets reset with the new year then will estimate was it was at the end of the year and add that to the numbers in Jan.
Update 2026-02-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution timing issue identified: The Jan-27 report showed 237 cases, but the Feb-3 update (which includes 4 days from January) shows 251 cases. The creator acknowledges uncertainty about the exact count at the end of January.
Proposed resolution approach: Creator is attempting to find more granular (likely weekly) data to determine a better number. If unable to find more precise data, creator is considering resolving 50/50 between the 214-237 and 238-250 buckets due to this ambiguity.
Creator is open to comments on this approach.
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Ok realize there is a problem here with the resolution and I was not as specific as I could be. As of Jan-27 the number was (237) and an update takes a week. So according to the report at the end of Jan we only knew about 237 but there were a full 4 days in Jan that are in the 3-Feb update. The Feb-3 updates that bumps the number to 251. It is likely it went over 237 in Jan of 2026 but It is not on the reports.
I am going to attempt to figure out a more granular level (weekly probably) to get a better number but I am temped to resolve 50/50 between 214-237 and 238-250 because of this issue. I will post updates if I have them here.
Open to comments on this.