Will another recreational expedition to the Titanic take place before 2026?
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By default I will use my own judgment to decide if any given expedition counts as recreational, but feel free to suggest more precise resolution criteria in the comments. If I see one I like I will probably commit to using it.

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sold Ṁ10 NO

What would it even look like for an expedition to the Titanic to be non-recreational? I suppose it could be for “research purposes,” but my impression is that roughly ~any trip to the site of the Titanic would have a large recreational component.

predicts NO

(Welcome!)

I agree that a manned expedition seems likely to include someone who is mainly a part of it for tourism reasons, but if the primary goal is to ~produce some artifact I probably wouldn't call it a recreational expedition.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wreck_of_the_Titanic#Subsequent_expeditions
> In August 2019, a team of explorers and scientists used deep-submergence vehicle Limiting Factor to visit the wreck, marking the first crewed dive to the ship in 14 years. Five dives took place over a period of eight days. The team used specially adapted cameras to capture the wreck in 4K resolution for the first time, and dedicated photogrammetry passes were performed to create highly accurate and photoreal 3D models of the wreck. Footage from the dive was used for a documentary film by Atlantic Productions.[75] The documentary, Back to the Titanic, aired on National Geographic in 2020.[76]

I haven't looked into it at all, but based on this description, if the expedition had taken place next year it probably wouldn't have caused me to resolve the market.

predicts NO

One way to make this precise might be by looking at how a mission was funded: if it was funded primarily by individuals who paid to be part of it, it seems likely to be recreational. If it was funded by some ~corporate entity, less so. Still not sure how exactly to word resolution criteria around that.

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