Resolves at the end of Trump's term, 20 January 2029.

President Donald Trump has begun work on his proposed ballroom in place of the White House’s former East Wing.

As of 26 October 2025 only basic visualisations have been published and there has been no public scrutiny of the plans.

Is it really going to be a ballroom, or something else?

If the finished structure uses more than half of its floorspace for a ballroom and supporting services I will resolve YES.

If the finished structure uses less than half of its floorspace for a ballroom and supporting services, and therefore more than half for other as-yet undeclared purposes I will resolve NO.

Conscious that the functions of buildings change over time, I will resolve at the end of President Trump’s term, 20 January 2029.

Resolution will be based on my judgement, looking at expert commentary from the architectural and hospitality industry based on what information about the building is available and what is reasonable to extrapolate. I believe if the building is >50% ballroom this will be simple. If it may be <50% ballroom it may be more difficult to be confident. I will engage with Manifold users as necessary in the comments.

• Update 2026-03-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Floorspace calculation includes all floors (basement, ground floor, upper floors, etc.). The total floorspace is the sum of all floor levels, and the >50% ballroom threshold applies to this combined total.

• Update 2026-03-31 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market resolves on January 20, 2029 regardless of whether Trump's term ends early or extends beyond that date. The fixed resolution date reflects that this market is primarily about the building itself, which is Trump's project and is assumed to be complete by then.