For decades, people have talked about the "year of the Linux desktop", with non-specific criteria but generally a subjective impression that Linux is ready for mainstream use. For years, people have talked about self-driving cars being right around the corner.
This market resolves YES if reliable self-driving cars are generally available (e.g. summonable for a ride by anyone in a large-scale market such as a country or several entire states of a country, not a 1-2 city trial) before Linux reaches 10% desktop market share (by some reasonably objective metric).
This market resolves NO if Linux reaches 10% desktop computer market share before reliable self-driving cars are generally available.
I expect to extend this market's close date if neither condition occurs.
Related questions
@NivlacM "Linux desktop" here is not about desktop vs laptop, it's about desktop vs phone vs embedded vs server. (Linux already has immense support across all three of the latter categories, while the "Linux desktop" has been the perennial just-around-the-corner.)
@DavidFWatson Fair question. I edited it to "(e.g. summonable for a ride by anyone in a large-scale market such as a country or several entire states of a country, not a 1-2 city trial)". I'm aiming to require something more than small-scale trial-runs in a couple of cities, for novelty or test purposes; it doesn't have to be available to 90% of the population of any given country, but it does have to be available to anyone in multiple large geographic regions.