For decades, people have talked about the "year of the Linux desktop", with non-specific criteria but generally a subjective impression that Linux is ready for mainstream use. For years, people have talked about self-driving cars being right around the corner.
This market resolves YES if reliable self-driving cars are generally available (e.g. summonable for a ride by anyone in a large-scale market such as a country or several entire states of a country, not a 1-2 city trial) before Linux reaches 10% desktop market share (by some reasonably objective metric).
This market resolves NO if Linux reaches 10% desktop computer market share before reliable self-driving cars are generally available.
I expect to extend this market's close date if neither condition occurs.
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@DavidFWatson Fair question. I edited it to "(e.g. summonable for a ride by anyone in a large-scale market such as a country or several entire states of a country, not a 1-2 city trial)". I'm aiming to require something more than small-scale trial-runs in a couple of cities, for novelty or test purposes; it doesn't have to be available to 90% of the population of any given country, but it does have to be available to anyone in multiple large geographic regions.