Will Elon Musk regain his title as "world's richest man" by the end of the decade?
39
256
750
resolved Jun 7
Resolved
YES

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/10/elon-musk-guinness-world-record-biggest-net-worth-drop.htm

This market will resolve YES is Elon is considered by Forbes to again be the world's richest man at any point prior to 1/1/2030.

As of Jan 2023 he sits at 2nd place below Bernard Arnault and above Gautam Adani.

https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#663743183d78

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bought Ṁ488 of YES

Its happened

https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#493ae8cc3d78

@jonsimon

1

Elon Musk

$216.9 B

▶ $5.4 B | 2.57%

51

Tesla, SpaceX

United States

2

Bernard Arnault & family

$215.1 B

bought Ṁ900 of YES
bought Ṁ25 of NO

Why is this so high? Seems like just based on fluctuations of even pretty favorable random walk it's way too high, is there something specific that the market knows about?

predicted NO

@na_pewno nevermind, I misread the question

predicted NO

1 in 100 whatever Forbes schedule for updating doesn’t mean this updates in time if he dips down again? I’ll take that

bought Ṁ100 of YES

Very plausible, he's in second place, there's about a 10% difference between him and first place, there's most of a year for those values to fluctuate, and he only needs to be briefly in first at any point, not in first place at the end.

What are the exact resolution criteria? Does this question resolve to YES if he holds that title at any point before the end of the decade, or if he holds that title on December 31, 2029? Or something else?

@howtodowtle at any point before the resolution date. Updated to clarify