
Will Conjecture produce work that they believe constitutes meaningful progress towards alignment by the end of 2023?
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2kṀ12kresolved Jan 18
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Conjecture recently released their 8 month retrospective, in which they shared their belief that they had yet to make meaningful progress on the alignment problem.
I will resolve this market to "Yes" if any of Conjecture's three founders (Connor Leahy, Sid Black, or Gabriel Alfour), or any other person who I deem as plausibly being able to speak authoritatively on Conjecture's behalf, publically state that they believe work carried out by Conjecture consitutes meaningful progress towards solving the alignment problem. If no such statement is made by Jan 1st 2024, I will resolve the market as "No".
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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