Alana
closes Dec 31, 2025
19%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Relevant market: https://manifold.markets/AlanaXiang/will-i-have-a-research-position-at (MIRI)
This market refers to Conjecture http://conjecture.dev
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Tassilo Neubaueris predicting NO at 33%
Do I interpret the question correctly that this will resolve negative, if you work there, but leave again by the end of 2025?
Alana
For the record, I'm incredibly excited about Conjecture. If I was offered a job at Conjecture, the probability that I would take it is probably very high.
Alanabought Ṁ10 of NO
@AlanaXiang 34% seems roughly correct.
It's probably going to be quite hard to get a visa in the UK without a college degree.
Also, like any other young startup, Conjecture may or may not exist by the end of 2025.
Alanabought Ṁ0 of YES
@AlanaXiang The Skilled Worker Visa seems to have no degree requirements. Time to buy Yes.
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