Will I have a research position at Conjecture (Research Engineer included) by the end of 2025?

1kṀ584

Dec 31

12%

chance

ALL

Relevant market: https://manifold.markets/AlanaXiang/will-i-have-a-research-position-at (MIRI)

This market refers to Conjecture http://conjecture.dev

Personal Goals

Get

1,000

to start trading!

People are also trading

Will I have a research position at Anthropic (Research Engineer included) by the end of 2025?

13% chance

Will I start at a full time job before June 2025?

41% chance

Will I have a research position at MIRI by 2025?

10% chance

Will Meta, Alphabet, Amazon or Microsoft invest in Conjecture before 2026?

36% chance

Will Conjecture have dissolved by 2028?

77% chance

Will I get a job in 2025?

95% chance

Will Conjecture's CoEm paradigm generate more than $1 Million USD in revenue before 2026?

34% chance

Will I have a career as an alignment researcher by the end of 2024?

38% chance

By 2028, will I think Conjecture has been net-good for the world?

75% chance

Will I get a tenure track job in a couple of years?

Sort by:

predictedNO

Do I interpret the question correctly that this will resolve negative, if you work there, but leave again by the end of 2025?

predictedYES

@Tassilo This is correct.

predictedYES

Please propose ideas for related markets.

For the record, I'm incredibly excited about Conjecture. If I was offered a job at Conjecture, the probability that I would take it is probably very high.

@AlanaXiang 34% seems roughly correct.

It's probably going to be quite hard to get a visa in the UK without a college degree.

Also, like any other young startup, Conjecture may or may not exist by the end of 2025.

@AlanaXiang The Skilled Worker Visa seems to have no degree requirements. Time to buy Yes.

@AlanaXiang https://www.gov.uk/skilled-worker-visa/print

Will I have a research position at Conjecture (Research Engineer included) by the end of 2025?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition