Her texting me back within two weeks?

127

1kṀ15k

Jun 22

34%

chance

ALL

bet on if the girl i havent talked to in a year but go to school with replies to my message (timed-sent btw)

Update 2025-06-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that the market will not be resolved to YES immediately if a text message is received. Instead, they will wait for the entire two-week period to conclude before resolving the market.

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30 Comments

111 Holders

273 Trades

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@johnbettington , since it seems relevant to this market, are you straight? And does this girl know?

@LarsOsborne based on this market it seems likely he doesn't know yet

@johnbettington If this resolves YES, you will show us the text message as a receipt, correct?

Beware, traders. I smell market manipulation.

While this is all above board and technically fair by all the rules I see here, be careful.

The Market Creator stated that they would let the market play out until the 2 weeks is up, not saying if she texted back until then, supposedly dissuading us from trading on theta decay.

However, no rule stated that the market creator could not trade on this market!

@JennypucZt and @johnbettington, AKA Jenny and jeremy, respectively, seem to be people of interest in the trade ledger.

The Market Creator and Jenny slammed the market down to 10% last night. Jeremy, obviously in the know about the status of this text conversation, has insider information, and made an implicit signal that the text hasn't happened yet with that 1,000 mana trade.

Also, to add more context from my investigation, Jenny is a new user and was paid 1,000 mana to make that slew of trades.

Given all this context, I assume that the market Jenny made here is related to this text message market: /JennypucZt/does-this-guy-like-women

All this to say, if the Market Creator wanted to keep a secret for 2 weeks, I'm afraid the cat's out of the bag.

Full disclosure, I too am playing this market. I just now purchased a NO order with the expectation that the rest of you all will buy the market down so I can sell at a profit. I have no relation to these 2 users and am only trying to monetize my market research. Happy trading!

To be clear, nobody has done anything wrong or unfair here. Don't hate the players, hate the game!

@Quroe Half the fun of Manifold is that insider trading (usually) can't actually hurt anyone

@SimonWestlake Agreed, I made a whole game show about it. 😉

Insider trading
Unlike many other places, Manifold encourages you to make markets more accurate by trading based on private information you might have. (This is sometimes referred to as “insider trading”). As long as you didn’t have some other duty to keep the information private, such as:
duty to your company,
duty to the person who told you this information, or
a public commitment made on the market,
the Manifold community welcomes insider trades. Caveat emptor!
-Manifold's Community Guidelines

@Quroe I might be wrong, but this is insider trading, not market manipulation, right? I thought the latter would be doing malicious stuff to make it resolve in your favour e.g. texting the girl that the market creator is a sex offender

@Quroe also their bets could be hedging, right?

@Quroe good catch.

In the other market, I also noticed that Jenny has bought NO.

@TheAllMemeingEye Perhaps you're correct. Maybe "manipulation" isn't the best word... But...

It is interesting that Jenny is talking up YES sentiment, but they have the biggest NO position at time of comment. I won't entirely uproot my heels from their dug in position.

@Quroe ah, fair enough, I guess you could say that the misinformation of talking it up while having insider info that it should actually be down might itself count as market manipulation, a sort of alternative pump and dump (pump and short?)