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MANIFOLD
Will Matt Levine's newsletter refer to Manifold Markets by name within the next 30 days?
12
Ṁ250Ṁ7.9k
resolved Nov 18
Resolved
NO

Resolves to Yes if, between 10/18/2023 and 11/17/2023 inclusive, Matt Levine's newsletter, "Money Stuff," refers unambiguously to Manifold Markets. Such a reference must look like one of the following:

  1. Use of the proper noun "Manifold Markets" (or "manifold markets") in the newsletter.

  2. Use of "Manifold" (or "manifold") as a proper noun that is probably referring to this site (e.g., "fake-money prediction markets like manifold" would count).

  3. Hyperlinks to the manifold.markets domain.

General references to prediction markets are insufficient for resolution to Yes.

Resolves to No if none of the three listed conditions is met.

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This should resolve to NO tomorrow, since it hasn't happened yet, and yesterday's newsletter said there's no newsletter today.

@jml, are you still around?

predictedNO

@DanielTilkin I'm going to wait until tomorrow.

This description is pretty clear, but please confirm that if Manifold is mentioned only in the "Things Happen" section this market will resolve to Yes.

predictedNO

@MagWildwood yes, it would resolve to Yes if mentioned in the "Things Happen" section.