Will more than 100.000 Syrians return to Syria from Germany by March 2027?
4
Ṁ100Ṁ522027
30%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market is based on the statements by Merz seen on Channel 4 News on X
This market has reduced criteria compared to Merz's statement:
33% (instead of 80%) over 3 years and a reduced time frame for faster market resolution. Two months are added since official numbers might come out later than 1.Jan 2027
900_000 / 3 / 3 years = 100_000 yr⁻¹Resolution criteria
If at least 2 of these news sources in Germany (Reuters, Tagesschau, Der Spiegel, Die Zeit, Süddeutsche Zeitung, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, Bild, Handelsblatt, taz, Focus Online, Welt) report a total number of returned refugees bigger than 100.000
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
How many migrants will come to Germany in 2025?
Will Germany tighten its refugee policy before 2030?
84% chance
Predictions about Syria in 2026
Will 100k new apartments be constructed in Berlin between end of 2021 and end of 2026?
9% chance
Will Norway, Spain or Ireland take in more than 1000 Palestinian refugees before 2027?
77% chance
Will Syria federalize before 2030?
28% chance
Which countries will take more than 100,000 Palestinians between 2025 and end of 2026?
Will More Than 1 Million Jews Immigrate to Israel in the years 2024-2027?
11% chance
Will Switzerland increase the amount of people allowed in their army to 150,000 or more by the end of 2027?
50% chance
Will Germany’s population have peaked by the end of 2025?
40% chance