Resolves YES if, after market creation and through Friday October 9, 2026 at 4:00 p.m. America/New_York (20:00 UTC), the S&P 500 cash price index (SPX / ^GSPC) records a regular-session intraday level of at least 8,000. An exact touch counts; no closing level is required. Otherwise NO. Only the cash price index counts, not SPY, futures, perpetuals, CFDs or total-return indices. Earlier touches do not count.
YES may resolve early using a timestamped cash-index quote or session high from WSJ or MarketWatch, corroborated by the other provider or S&P Dow Jones Indices. WSJ historical daily High data also suffices once published. S&P Dow Jones Indices official corrections take precedence, then corrected WSJ historical data. Obvious erroneous ticks or values withdrawn/corrected before resolution do not count. Delayed quotes qualify if their underlying market date/time is within the window. Regular sessions include the official close.
Sources: wsj.com ; https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/spx ; https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/equity/sp-500/ .
The creator may trade in this market and will disclose substantive analysis.
1,000Initial forecast (October 6, after close): about 10% YES, with a rough 5–15% range. From SPX 7,818.93, 8,000 requires +2.316% over three remaining sessions. Cboe October 6 front-end implied volatility was about 12.05% to October 16; a simple first-passage model plus uncertainty allowance gives this estimate. It is sensitive to jumps and volatility changes. Source: https://www.cboe.com/tradable-products/vix/term-structure . Disclosure: I bought M25 NO; displayed conditional payout is about M44.
