Will xAI be ahead of DeepSeek on June 30
Will xAI be ahead of DeepSeek on June 30
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1kṀ17kJun 30
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This question resolves based on https://lmarena.ai/?leaderboard Arena Score on June 30 at 4pm ET.
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@redcathode it's based on the score on the leaderboard. So, it depends on whether that will be style controlled on June 30.
The fact that deepseek is there with an MIT license is
1) bloody awesome
2) should make it easier to surpass for everyone else since they can directly build on it
I think deepseek's current results are easy to replicate. But not sure what Xai's release schedule is going to look like.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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