Resolves YES if David says what we did here was OK after all
https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-white-win-this-rapid-chess-gam-UqZLQpQSdy
Update 2024-31-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Clarification:
Resolves NO if David does not say what we did here was OK after all, even if it's unranked.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ2,383 | |
| 2 | Ṁ1,067 | |
| 3 | Ṁ935 | |
| 4 | Ṁ201 | |
| 5 | Ṁ122 |
@SirSalty Taking honest big bets on private things is usually okay, although it should be unranked. There's an argument for not allowing it to count towards profit graphs too. If it seems like people start abusing this we may have to change rules regarding coin tosses to boost profit graphs.
If it seems like it is an attempt to boost profit, whether for leagues or just the profit graph, it is not okay. This is clearly what is happening here lol
I'll look to subtract the 800k profit from Jim's profile and give him a fine as he has been warned before for aiding and abetting. There's also another market where Jim punted a large amount of profit for the benefit of another top Master's user. I need to look into this next (there may not be collusion going on, haven't looked properly yet, it might just be Jim being Pepega).
I'm still deciding how to manage Ammon's actions which also include another attempt. Brad also did the same thing trying to defend his position so will need to decide what to do there too. Will pass judgement on the linked Brad market.
@SirSalty but I'm OK with you cancelling the profit... as long as you also cancel the loss from when I definitely purposfully dumped manas to Bayesian
There's also another market where Jim punted a large amount of profit for the benefit of another top Master's user.
There's also another market where Jim punted a large amount of profit for the benefit of another top Master's user.
That was a market about a real prediction, and many other markets, as well as questions on metaculus, reflected a high degree of uncertainty about when AI would make progress on FrontierMath. I was optimistic, and there was rumors that o3 would come out the next day (which I personally didn't believe) which prompted me to make the market about 20%+ frontiermath by EOY 2026. And then o3 came out the next day and the market price shot up (note that other markets about AI math ability shot up as well; o3 was not priced in at all). I'm pretty sure jim didn't do it for my benefit, and that he thought he would win the bet. He at least didn't give any indication that he was losing on purpose.
@jim I suppose that in regard to the market title, if David doesn’t comment then he has not “ruled in favor of Ammon”.
(Just in case your efforts fail to get a comment/ruling from him.)
If @SirSalty says this is OK I might as well blowup all my balance here to help you all put the site out of its misery.
@jim Right. Here's the #1 Top Master this month:
So your "point" got lost somewhere there. I sincerely thank you both for drawing attention to it, and if admins don't care then so be it, was fun while it lasted.
@deagol if David Chee rules in favour of Ammon then those losses will be re-ranked and Ammon will go to the bottom of Masters.
@jim lol no, if they really care they would perhaps unrank the other market (Blitz Tournament) where Ammon did the same with an alt, and maybe even fine/ban you both. I'll give you that they are reluctant to act, as if they actually don't care about their site. We've both seen this repeatedly forever (same Levi crap from way back but now x100).