Will the National Institutes of Health (NIH) annual budget in fiscal year 2028 be at least 50% lower than its FY2024 budget ($47.1 billion) in nominal dollars?

Resolution criteria:

• Market resolves YES if the NIH's FY2028 budget is $23.55 billion or less (50% or more reduction from FY2024)

• Market resolves NO if the NIH's FY2028 budget is above $23.55 billion

Sources:

• Current FY2024 budget: https://research.ucsf.edu/vcr-update-current-state-nih-funding

• Future budgets will be published at: https://officeofbudget.od.nih.gov/