Will the NIH's annual budget in 2028 be at least 50% lower than its 2024 budget in nominal dollars?
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Will the National Institutes of Health (NIH) annual budget in fiscal year 2028 be at least 50% lower than its FY2024 budget ($47.1 billion) in nominal dollars?
Resolution criteria:
Market resolves YES if the NIH's FY2028 budget is $23.55 billion or less (50% or more reduction from FY2024)
Market resolves NO if the NIH's FY2028 budget is above $23.55 billion
Sources:
Current FY2024 budget: https://research.ucsf.edu/vcr-update-current-state-nih-funding
Future budgets will be published at: https://officeofbudget.od.nih.gov/
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