Will the U.S. military budget decrease by 10%+ during the 2025-2029 presidential term?
6
100Ṁ1202029
25%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolution Criteria:
1. The baseline is the enacted FY2025 Department of Defense base budget of $849.8 billion in nominal dollars.
2. The comparison will be made against the last enacted base budget or actual base spending (whichever is lower) during the presidential term ending January 20, 2029.
3. A decrease of 10% or more (meaning $764.8 billion or lower) from the baseline qualifies as YES.
4. Budget numbers will be sourced from official Congressional Budget Office or Department of Defense documents.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Related questions
Related questions
If Trump wins, will at least 20 NATO members reach the 2% target for defense spending in 2025?
55% chance
Will total US military expenditure top its all-time high by 2024?
9% chance
Will the 2025 US Budget cut Social Security and Medicare by at least 5%
34% chance
Will Trump and Elon cut the Federal Budget by more than $1 Trillion/yr by the end of 2025?
14% chance
Will the US Deficit be higher at the end of 2025 than at the end of 2024?
68% chance
Will US still have the highest military spending among all countries by 2100?
52% chance
Will the Pentagon make a major planning/budget change against the F-35 by mid 2027
18% chance
What will US federal government spending as a percent of GDP be in 2029?
37% chance
Will the NIH's annual budget in 2028 be at least 50% lower than its 2024 budget in nominal dollars?
29% chance
Will the FY2028 deficit be lower than the FY2024 deficit?
32% chance