Will Bluesky have more active users than Mastodon by the end of 2025?
21
1kṀ3334
resolved Nov 16
Resolved
YES


If the number of active users for either platform cannot be determined authoritatively, the market will resolve to N/A.

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Seems likelier to be true now, Bsky hit a massive growth spurt after opening up.

What are the definitions of an Active user?

  • For Mastodon, I guess you will follow the definition from the link. I don't see what the definition is however. Can you clarify?

  • For Bluesky, I see on jazco.dev that there are only 840k users with more than 5 posts at the moment. There are no stats of how often somebody logs in. How will you decide this number?

https://bsky.jazco.dev/stats

@ErwinRossen If this is not clear-cut and comes down to the wire, I will:

  • Use whatever "Active user" number is given on Jaz's dashboard at that time, if any.

  • If there are none, I will use the ratio of active users to total users on Mastodon to estimate the number of active users on Bluesky. (Right now it is about 1/3)

I will likely use https://bsky.jazco.dev/stats for bsky user stats.


This is going to be a tighter race than I anticipated! Bsky is already at 3M accounts while Mastodon is at 9M. There are no clear active user counts for Bsky yet

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