Mastodon: Active users as reported here: https://fediverse.party/en/mastodon/
Bluesky: Active users from a similar authoritative source (to be determined as the platform opens up).
If the number of active users for either platform cannot be determined authoritatively, the market will resolve to N/A.
Related questions
Seems likelier to be true now, Bsky hit a massive growth spurt after opening up.
What are the definitions of an Active user?
For Mastodon, I guess you will follow the definition from the link. I don't see what the definition is however. Can you clarify?
For Bluesky, I see on jazco.dev that there are only 840k users with more than 5 posts at the moment. There are no stats of how often somebody logs in. How will you decide this number?
@ErwinRossen If this is not clear-cut and comes down to the wire, I will:
Use whatever "Active user" number is given on Jaz's dashboard at that time, if any.
If there are none, I will use the ratio of active users to total users on Mastodon to estimate the number of active users on Bluesky. (Right now it is about 1/3)
I will likely use https://bsky.jazco.dev/stats for bsky user stats.
This is going to be a tighter race than I anticipated! Bsky is already at 3M accounts while Mastodon is at 9M. There are no clear active user counts for Bsky yet