At time of writing in 2024, China's Yunnan province is extremely famous in the tea world and produces a lot of tea, with puerh tea being particularly well-known. This market resolves to YES if the quantity produced in 2030 is equal to or greater than what was produced in 2024, and to NO if the quantity has dropped by more than 50%. If the amount produced is between 50% and 100% of 2024 production, the market resolves to NA.

My underlying question for this market is: is there going to be no (climate, political, etc.) catastrophe that makes Yunnan unsuitable for tea production? If the resolution criteria are unclear, I'll use this underlying question as a guide to refining them.